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A2 Insights

7 polls analyzed · population: 2 RV, 5 LV

Election house effect
R+0.3
95%: R+3.0 to D+2.3 · 6 polls, 4 races
Approval house effect
+1.6 net approval
95%: −5.4 net approval to +8.1 net approval · 1 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.33).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Quantus Insights32.01.3 to 3.11.3
SoCal Strategies3-0.1-2.1 to 3.70.4
Emerson College3-2.4-6.9 to 2.9-0.2
AtlasIntel3-0.6-5.3 to 4.0-3.8

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Jul 10, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)862 RV−4.4 net approval+3.4release
Jun 28, 20262026 Texas Senate618 LVD+2.3D+0.5release
Oct 26, 20252025 Virginia Governor776 LVD+8.1R+0.7release
Oct 26, 20252025 New Jersey Governor812 LVD+4.9R+0.6release
Sep 28, 20252025 Virginia Governor771 LVD+3.0R+5.5release
Aug 2, 20252025 New Jersey Governor629 LVD+6.0R+1.3release
Jul 10, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot862 RVD+3.3D+1.3release