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2026 Texas Senate

Margin = James Talarico − Ken Paxton. 63 polls from 35 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 14, 2026: D+2.1(95% band R+0.3 to D+4.5).

Polls and consensus

Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band

How each pollster compares in this race

Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.

PollsterPolls hereAvg. vs consensus hereOverall house effect
Pulse Decision Science1R+5.6R+1.8
Quantus Insights2R+3.3R+1.6
Overton Insights1R+3.0R+0.9
Stratus Intelligence1R+2.6R+1.5
UMass Lowell/YouGov1R+2.6R+0.7
InsiderAdvantage2R+2.3R+0.9
University of Houston/Texas Southern University1R+1.9R+0.3
Emerson College3R+1.9R+0.1
Texas Southern University3R+1.7R+0.9
Rasmussen Reports1R+1.6R+0.2
University of Houston/YouGov2R+1.3R+0.3
Impact Research1R+0.8D+0.4
Big Data Poll1R+0.6D+0.3
Wedgewood Polls1R+0.6Even
SoCal Strategies2R+0.6R+0.7
Trafalgar Group2R+0.5R+1.5
Guidant Polling & Strategy1R+0.2R+0.1
CBS News/YouGov1R+0.1D+0.4
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)2R+0.1D+0.6
University of Texas at Tyler1D+0.1Even
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy1D+0.1R+1.1
Ragnar Research Partners1D+0.2R+0.8
A2 Insights1D+0.5R+0.3
YouGov Blue1D+0.5D+0.6
Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov4D+0.7R+0.1
The New York Times/Siena2D+0.8R+0.2
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research1D+1.0D+0.8
ActiVote1D+1.5D+0.4
Marist Poll2D+1.5D+2.4
Siena/ReconMR4D+1.8D+1.4
Univision / YouGov1D+2.0Even
Slingshot Strategies4D+2.0D+0.8
Texas Public Opinion Research5D+2.1D+1.0
Public Policy Polling2D+2.6D+0.4
YouGov3D+3.3D+0.3

All polls

Field datesPollsterSampleResultHouse-effect adjustedSource
Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026CBS News/YouGov1,492 LVD+2.0D+1.7release via wikipedia
Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVR+1.0R+1.1release via votehub
Oct 10, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026University of Houston/YouGov2,000 LVD+2.0D+2.4release via wikipedia
Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026ActiVote400 LVD+3.8D+3.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 9, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026Quantus Insights854 LVR+0.5D+0.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026Marist Poll— LVD+2.0R+0.3release via wikipedia
Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026Trafalgar Group R1,086 LVD+3.0D+4.7release via wikipedia
Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026Siena/ReconMR617 LVD+4.0D+2.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026YouGov3,625 LVD+6.0D+5.8release via wikipedia
Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov861 LVD+3.0D+3.1release via wikipedia
Sep 21, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026The New York Times/Siena615 LVD+6.0D+6.3release via wikipedia
Sep 28, 2026 – Sep 29, 2026Rasmussen Reports1,128 LVD+1.0D+0.2release via wikipedia
Sep 24, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) R881 LVD+2.0D+1.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026Guidant Polling & Strategy R800 LVD+2.4D+3.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 18, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026UMass Lowell/YouGov850 LVEvenD+0.8release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 24, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026Pulse Decision Science R800 LVR+3.0R+1.1release via wikipedia
Sep 24, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026Big Data Poll698 LVD+2.0D+1.4release via wikipedia
Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 24, 2026Stratus Intelligence R856 LVEvenD+1.6release via wikipedia
Sep 19, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research D1,007 LVD+5.0D+3.5release via wikipedia
Sep 19, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026Slingshot Strategies1,007 LVD+4.0D+3.6release via votehub
Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 20, 2026Marist Poll1,139 RVD+6.0D+3.6release via wikipedia
Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 19, 2026Texas Southern University1,800 LVD+1.0D+2.0release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 17, 2026Trafalgar Group R1,079 LVD+1.0D+2.7release via wikipedia
Sep 12, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026Emerson College1,000 LVD+1.0D+1.2release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 12, 2026 – Sep 13, 2026SoCal Strategies649 LVD+5.0D+4.6release via wikipedia
Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026Siena/ReconMR614 LVD+6.0D+4.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy625 LVD+3.0D+4.2release via wikipedia
Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 9, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD+1.5D+1.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 4, 2026YouGov1,000 RVD+5.0D+4.8release via votehub
Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 4, 2026Univision / YouGov1,000 RVD+5.0D+5.0release via wikipedia
Aug 30, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research D895 LVD+4.0D+3.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 24, 2026 – Aug 26, 2026Overton Insights R1,167 LVEvenD+1.0release via wikipedia
Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 24, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research D1,000 LVD+6.0D+4.5release via wikipedia
Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 24, 2026Slingshot Strategies1,000 LVD+6.0D+5.6release via votehub
Aug 5, 2026 – Aug 13, 2026Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov1,218 RVD+3.0D+3.0release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 10, 2026Emerson College1,000 LVR+1.0R+0.8release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 30, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026Wedgewood Polls800 LVD+2.0D+2.1release via votehub
Jul 15, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026YouGov Blue D1,001 RVD+3.0D+1.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 27, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026Texas Southern University1,200 LVD+2.0D+3.0release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 27, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026Siena/ReconMR619 LVD+4.0D+2.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 23, 2026 – Jul 27, 2026Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) R1,006 RVD+3.0D+2.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 15, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research D1,048 LVD+5.0D+3.5release via wikipedia
Jul 15, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026Slingshot Strategies1,048 LVD+5.0D+4.6release via votehub
Jun 23, 2026 – Jun 28, 2026A2 Insights618 LVD+2.3D+2.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 19, 2026 – Jun 27, 2026The New York Times/Siena656 LVEvenD+0.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 21, 2026 – Jun 21, 2026SoCal Strategies R800 LVR+1.4R+0.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 5, 2026 – Jun 12, 2026Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov1,200 RVR+1.0R+0.9release via votehub
Jun 3, 2026 – Jun 4, 2026Quantus Insights800 LVR+2.0R+1.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 1, 2026 – Jun 4, 2026Siena/ReconMR807 LVD+3.0D+1.6release via votehub
May 27, 2026 – May 28, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research D1,670 LVD+3.0D+1.6release via wikipedia
May 27, 2026 – May 28, 2026Slingshot Strategies D1,670 LVD+3.0D+1.4release via votehub
May 22, 2026 – May 23, 2026Public Policy Polling D643 LVD+7.0D+6.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Apr 22, 2026 – May 6, 2026Texas Southern University1,223 LVEvenD+1.0release via votehub
Apr 17, 2026 – Apr 20, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research D1,018 LVD+5.0D+3.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Apr 10, 2026 – Apr 20, 2026YouGov1,200 RVD+8.0D+7.8release via votehub
Apr 10, 2026 – Apr 20, 2026Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov1,200 RVD+8.0D+8.1release via wikipedia
Mar 12, 2026 – Mar 17, 2026Impact Research900 LVD+1.0D+1.6release via votehub
Mar 4, 2026 – Mar 5, 2026Public Policy Polling D576 AD+2.0R+0.2release via votehub,wikipedia
Jan 20, 2026 – Jan 31, 2026University of Houston/YouGov1,502 LVR+2.0R+1.6release via votehub
Jan 10, 2026 – Jan 12, 2026Emerson College1,165 RVEvenD+0.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Nov 12, 2025 – Nov 17, 2025Ragnar Research Partners R1,000 LVEvenD+0.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 19, 2025 – Oct 1, 2025University of Houston/Texas Southern University1,650 RVR+3.0R+2.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 17, 2025 – Sep 24, 2025University of Texas at Tyler1,032 RVR+1.0R+1.0release via votehub,wikipedia