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Siena/ReconMR

8 polls analyzed · population: 8 LV

Election house effect
D+1.4
95%: R+1.1 to D+4.0 · 8 polls, 2 races

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.23, p = 0.020). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov41.3-1.0 to 3.31.5
Quantus Insights34.23.0 to 5.03.1

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Oct 8, 20262026 Texas Senate617 LVD+4.0D+1.7release
Oct 8, 20262026 Texas Governor617 LVR+1.0D+1.5release
Sep 11, 20262026 Texas Senate614 LVD+6.0D+3.1release
Sep 11, 20262026 Texas Governor614 LVD+4.0D+6.8release
Jul 30, 20262026 Texas Senate619 LVD+4.0D+1.4release
Jul 30, 20262026 Texas Governor619 LVR+1.0D+3.0release
Jun 4, 20262026 Texas Senate807 LVD+3.0D+1.2release
Jun 4, 20262026 Texas Governor807 LVR+5.0D+0.6release