2026 Texas Governor
Margin = Gina Hinojosa − Greg Abbott. 54 polls from 28 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 14, 2026: R+2.6(95% band R+5.2 to D+0.1).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoCal Strategies | 2 | R+5.3 | R+0.7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1 | R+4.2 | R+1.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 1 | R+2.4 | R+1.6 |
| Stratus Intelligence | 1 | R+2.4 | R+1.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 1 | R+2.4 | D+0.3 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 1 | R+2.0 | Even |
| CBS News/YouGov | 1 | R+1.4 | D+0.4 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 1 | R+1.4 | R+0.7 |
| Texas Southern University | 3 | R+1.2 | R+0.9 |
| University of Texas at Tyler | 1 | R+0.8 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 4 | R+0.7 | D+1.0 |
| Emerson College | 3 | R+0.4 | R+0.1 |
| Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | 5 | R+0.4 | R+0.1 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 5 | R+0.3 | D+0.8 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | 2 | R+0.2 | R+0.3 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 1 | R+0.1 | D+0.8 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 2 | D+0.3 | D+0.6 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | 1 | D+0.6 | R+0.1 |
| ActiVote | 1 | D+0.7 | D+0.4 |
| Cygnal | 1 | D+0.9 | R+0.8 |
| Overton Insights | 1 | D+1.3 | R+0.9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 1 | D+1.6 | D+0.4 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 2 | D+2.0 | R+0.2 |
| Marist Poll | 2 | D+2.1 | D+2.4 |
| Univision / YouGov | 1 | D+2.9 | Even |
| Siena/ReconMR | 4 | D+3.0 | D+1.4 |
| YouGov | 2 | D+3.1 | D+0.3 |
| GBAO | 3 | D+3.8 | D+1.9 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026 | CBS News/YouGov | 1,492 LV | R+4.0 | R+4.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 10, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026 | University of Houston/YouGov | 2,000 LV | R+3.0 | R+2.6 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | R+1.8 | R+2.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026 | Marist Poll | — LV | R+4.0 | R+6.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026 | Siena/ReconMR | 617 LV | R+1.0 | R+2.4 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026 | GBAO D | 800 LV | D+2.0 | R+0.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026 | YouGov | 3,625 LV | D+1.0 | D+0.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026 | Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | 861 LV | D+1.0 | D+1.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026 | The New York Times/Siena | 605 LV | D+3.0 | D+3.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 24, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 | Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) R | 881 LV | R+5.0 | R+5.4 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 | Guidant Polling & Strategy | 800 LV | R+2.0 | R+2.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 18, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 | UMass Lowell/YouGov | 850 LV | R+4.0 | R+3.2 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 24, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 | Big Data Poll | 698 LV | R+5.0 | R+5.6 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 24, 2026 | Stratus Intelligence R | 865 LV | R+5.0 | R+3.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 19, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | R+4.0 | R+4.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 19, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026 | Slingshot Strategies | 1,007 LV | R+4.0 | R+4.4 | release via votehub |
| Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 20, 2026 | Marist Poll | 1,139 RV | D+3.0 | D+0.6 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 19, 2026 | Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | R+4.0 | R+3.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 12, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | R+3.0 | R+2.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 12, 2026 – Sep 13, 2026 | SoCal Strategies R | 649 LV | R+8.0 | R+7.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026 | Siena/ReconMR | 614 LV | D+4.0 | D+2.6 | release via votehub |
| Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | R+7.0 | R+5.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 4, 2026 | YouGov | 1,000 RV | Even | R+0.3 | release via votehub |
| Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 4, 2026 | Univision / YouGov | 1,000 RV | Even | Even | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 30, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026 | Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research D | 895 LV | R+3.0 | R+3.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 24, 2026 – Aug 26, 2026 | Overton Insights R | 1,167 LV | R+2.0 | R+1.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 24, 2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | R+7.0 | R+7.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 24, 2026 | Slingshot Strategies | 1,000 LV | R+7.0 | R+7.4 | release via votehub |
| Aug 5, 2026 – Aug 13, 2026 | Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | 1,218 RV | R+5.0 | R+5.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 10, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | R+4.0 | R+3.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 4, 2026 – Aug 9, 2026 | GBAO D | 1,000 LV | R+1.0 | R+3.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 30, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026 | Wedgewood Polls | 800 LV | R+6.0 | R+5.9 | release via votehub |
| Jul 29, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026 | Cygnal R | 800 LV | R+3.0 | R+1.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 27, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026 | Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | R+6.0 | R+5.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 27, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026 | Siena/ReconMR | 619 LV | R+1.0 | R+2.4 | release via votehub |
| Jul 23, 2026 – Jul 27, 2026 | Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) R | 1,006 RV | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 15, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,048 LV | R+3.0 | R+3.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 15, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026 | Slingshot Strategies | 1,048 LV | R+3.0 | R+3.4 | release via votehub |
| Jun 19, 2026 – Jun 27, 2026 | The New York Times/Siena | 656 LV | R+7.0 | R+6.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jun 21, 2026 – Jun 21, 2026 | SoCal Strategies R | 800 LV | R+10.7 | R+9.7 | release via votehub |
| Jun 5, 2026 – Jun 12, 2026 | Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | 1,200 RV | R+7.0 | R+7.0 | release via votehub |
| Jun 3, 2026 – Jun 4, 2026 | Quantus Insights R | 800 LV | R+8.0 | R+5.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Jun 1, 2026 – Jun 4, 2026 | Siena/ReconMR | 807 LV | R+5.0 | R+6.3 | release via votehub |
| May 27, 2026 – May 28, 2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,670 LV | R+5.0 | R+5.3 | release via wikipedia |
| May 27, 2026 – May 28, 2026 | Slingshot Strategies | 1,670 LV | R+5.0 | R+5.4 | release via votehub |
| May 22, 2026 – May 23, 2026 | Public Policy Polling D | 643 LV | R+4.0 | R+4.4 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Apr 22, 2026 – May 6, 2026 | Texas Southern University | 1,223 LV | R+6.0 | R+5.0 | release via votehub |
| Apr 17, 2026 – Apr 20, 2026 | Slingshot Strategies D | 1,018 LV | R+5.0 | R+6.6 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Apr 10, 2026 – Apr 20, 2026 | Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | 1,200 RV | R+6.0 | R+6.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Feb 13, 2026 – Feb 22, 2026 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1,117 RV | R+8.0 | R+8.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Feb 2, 2026 – Feb 16, 2026 | Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | 1,300 RV | R+10.0 | R+9.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 26, 2026 – Feb 3, 2026 | GBAO D | 1,000 LV | R+3.0 | R+5.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 20, 2026 – Jan 31, 2026 | University of Houston/YouGov | 1,502 LV | R+7.0 | R+6.6 | release via votehub |
| Jan 10, 2026 – Jan 12, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,165 RV | R+7.9 | R+7.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |