ActiVote
27 polls analyzed · population: 11 LV, 16 A
Election house effect
D+0.4
95%: R+2.1 to D+3.0 · 11 polls, 11 races
Approval house effect
+1.8 net approval
95%: −0.5 net approval to +4.2 net approval · 16 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.47).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.11, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 4 | -0.3 | -2.5 to 2.9 | 0.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | 1.3 | -1.4 to 4.3 | 2.0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 3 | 2.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 1.9 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 35 | 2.4 | 1.4 to 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Morning Consult | 34 | -2.0 | -3.0 to -1.0 | -1.9 |
| Ipsos | 24 | 6.2 | 5.1 to 7.2 | 6.5 |
| RMG Research | 19 | -7.8 | -9.4 to -6.1 | -6.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 16 | -4.0 | -5.2 to -2.9 | -2.1 |
| Echelon Insights | 16 | -0.3 | -1.5 to 0.9 | 2.5 |
| American Research Group | 15 | 13.1 | 10.6 to 15.3 | 14.5 |
| Verasight | 14 | 6.0 | 4.6 to 7.3 | 5.9 |
| AP-NORC | 11 | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 11.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 10 | 4.6 | 3.4 to 5.6 | 4.5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 10 | 6.3 | 4.5 to 8.0 | 7.2 |
| Gallup | 9 | 8.8 | 7.5 to 10.3 | 8.6 |
| Emerson College | 9 | -3.0 | -4.3 to -1.7 | -1.5 |
| J.L. Partners | 9 | -4.9 | -7.3 to -2.7 | -3.4 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 8 | 2.7 | 1.1 to 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 8 | 2.2 | -0.1 to 4.9 | 3.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 6 | -5.0 | -8.9 to -1.4 | -3.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 6 | -14.1 | -16.4 to -11.5 | -11.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 6 | 2.2 | -0.8 to 5.1 | 2.2 |
| GBAO | 5 | 1.7 | 0.1 to 3.5 | 3.3 |
| CNN/SSRS | 5 | 9.1 | 8.3 to 9.9 | 9.4 |
| AtlasIntel | 5 | 1.9 | -0.6 to 4.2 | 3.8 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 5 | 2.6 | 1.6 to 3.8 | 0.7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 5 | -4.0 | -5.0 to -2.9 | -1.8 |
| HarrisX | 5 | -5.4 | -7.5 to -3.3 | -4.5 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 5 | -1.2 | -3.8 to 2.0 | 0.1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 5 | -2.8 | -4.4 to -0.4 | -0.6 |
| TIPP Insights | 4 | -0.7 | -3.0 to 0.8 | -1.6 |
| The Winston Group | 4 | 7.6 | 4.5 to 10.8 | 6.2 |
| Survey 160 | 3 | 8.7 | 7.0 to 11.0 | 8.8 |
| Pew Research Center | 3 | 12.8 | 10.1 to 15.3 | 11.9 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 3 | 6.7 | 5.9 to 7.3 | 5.5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 to 7.3 | 6.0 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 672 A | −15.0 net approval | +2.5 | release |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 636 A | −16.0 net approval | +1.1 | release |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 598 A | −13.0 net approval | +2.5 | release |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 580 A | −12.0 net approval | +1.7 | release |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 490 A | −8.7 net approval | +3.3 | release |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 568 A | −14.0 net approval | −1.2 | release |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 574 A | −5.0 net approval | +3.9 | release |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 485 A | −8.0 net approval | +0.1 | release |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 412 A | −6.7 net approval | +1.4 | release |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 454 A | −7.6 net approval | +0.7 | release |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 523 A | −7.0 net approval | 0 | release |
| May 31, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 488 A | −3.9 net approval | +1.5 | release |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 576 A | −6.1 net approval | +0.1 | release |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 799 A | −1.8 net approval | 0 | release |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,760 A | +0.7 net approval | −1.2 | release |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,182 A | +6.1 net approval | −0.4 | release |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2026 North Carolina Senate | 400 LV | D+14.0 | D+3.6 | release |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2026 Illinois Senate | 400 LV | D+17.0 | D+3.5 | release |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2026 Georgia Senate | 400 LV | D+8.0 | R+1.2 | release |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2026 Georgia Governor | 400 LV | R+3.0 | R+1.9 | release |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Governor | 400 LV | R+2.8 | R+6.3 | release |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2026 Florida Governor | 400 LV | R+3.4 | D+0.6 | release |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 400 LV | Even | R+3.2 | release |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2026 California Governor | 400 LV | D+26.0 | D+9.5 | release |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2026 Florida Senate | 400 LV | R+6.0 | R+0.1 | release |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2026 Texas Senate | 400 LV | D+3.8 | D+1.5 | release |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2026 Texas Governor | 400 LV | R+1.8 | D+0.7 | release |