Marquette Law School Poll
17 polls analyzed · population: 8 LV, 3 A, 6 RV
Election house effect
D+1.1
95%: R+1.6 to D+3.7 · 7 polls, 2 races
Approval house effect
−2.1 net approval
95%: −4.7 net approval to +0.5 net approval · 10 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.46).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.55).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 12 | 2.3 | 0.3 to 4.1 | 0.8 |
| Morning Consult | 10 | 2.7 | -0.1 to 5.2 | 3.2 |
| Ipsos | 7 | 4.9 | 2.7 to 6.6 | 3.0 |
| Verasight | 6 | -1.4 | -5.2 to 1.5 | -0.8 |
| Echelon Insights | 6 | 1.8 | -1.7 to 4.3 | 1.9 |
| Emerson College | 4 | -1.0 | -5.5 to 3.5 | 1.2 |
| TIPP Insights | 3 | 0.3 | -4.0 to 4.0 | 0.9 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | 3.0 | 0.5 to 4.6 | 2.7 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 25 | -6.0 | -7.9 to -4.3 | -5.8 |
| YouGov | 25 | -0.4 | -2.4 to 1.4 | -0.7 |
| Ipsos | 13 | 3.0 | 0.7 to 5.5 | 2.6 |
| RMG Research | 12 | -10.5 | -12.0 to -8.3 | -10.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 9 | -0.7 | -3.0 to 1.9 | -1.4 |
| Verasight | 9 | 4.1 | 2.0 to 6.2 | 2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 8 | -0.4 | -2.9 to 2.0 | 0.6 |
| AP-NORC | 8 | 9.3 | 6.1 to 12.3 | 7.1 |
| ActiVote | 8 | -2.2 | -4.9 to 0.1 | -3.9 |
| Quantus Insights | 8 | -7.4 | -9.2 to -5.5 | -6.0 |
| American Research Group | 7 | 12.6 | 7.9 to 16.9 | 10.6 |
| HarrisX | 6 | -6.2 | -7.3 to -4.3 | -8.4 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 6 | 0.7 | -2.3 to 4.7 | -0.5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 6 | 3.5 | -1.7 to 8.0 | 3.3 |
| J.L. Partners | 5 | -3.0 | -4.4 to -1.0 | -7.3 |
| TIPP Insights | 5 | -3.2 | -7.2 to 1.2 | -5.5 |
| Emerson College | 5 | -5.6 | -9.2 to -0.6 | -5.4 |
| Gallup | 4 | 5.5 | -0.5 to 11.5 | 4.7 |
| Big Data Poll | 4 | -4.7 | -8.2 to 1.3 | -7.6 |
| Marist Poll | 4 | 1.3 | -1.5 to 3.5 | 1.8 |
| GBAO | 3 | 1.0 | -2.0 to 3.0 | -0.6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | -5.3 | -9.0 to -1.0 | -3.8 |
| Pew Research Center | 3 | 6.0 | 0.0 to 10.0 | 8.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 3 | -2.0 | -5.0 to 1.0 | -0.7 |