HarrisX
24 polls analyzed · population: 12 RV, 12 LV
Election house effect
R+2.7
95%: R+4.8 to R+0.5 · 7 polls, 1 race
Approval house effect
+6.3 net approval
95%: +4.9 net approval to +7.8 net approval · 17 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.61).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.28).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 13 | -1.5 | -2.4 to -0.5 | -0.5 |
| YouGov | 11 | -2.9 | -3.8 to -1.9 | -2.9 |
| Ipsos | 8 | -2.4 | -3.6 to -1.0 | -0.7 |
| Cygnal | 6 | -2.7 | -4.2 to -1.2 | -1.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 5 | -6.8 | -10.2 to -2.8 | -3.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 5 | -3.8 | -5.2 to -2.5 | -1.0 |
| Emerson College | 5 | -8.5 | -9.4 to -7.8 | -2.5 |
| Verasight | 4 | -6.8 | -9.0 to -5.3 | -4.5 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | -3.7 | -5.0 to -2.0 | -3.4 |
| Focaldata | 3 | -3.1 | -5.4 to 0.0 | -3.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 3 | -1.7 | -4.0 to 1.0 | -2.8 |
| Marist Poll | 3 | -9.0 | -10.0 to -8.0 | -5.0 |
| RMG Research | 3 | -3.3 | -7.0 to 0.0 | 0.3 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 3 | -4.7 | -6.0 to -4.0 | -2.5 |
| Echelon Insights | 3 | -3.7 | -6.0 to -1.0 | -1.8 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 36 | 8.6 | 7.5 to 9.8 | 7.7 |
| Morning Consult | 35 | 3.1 | 1.9 to 4.3 | 2.6 |
| Ipsos | 22 | 13.3 | 11.5 to 15.2 | 11.0 |
| RMG Research | 22 | 0.4 | -2.1 to 3.1 | -1.6 |
| J.L. Partners | 16 | 0.7 | -2.5 to 3.6 | 1.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 16 | 3.3 | 1.4 to 5.3 | 2.4 |
| TIPP Insights | 13 | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 2.9 |
| Global Strategy Group | 12 | 10.2 | 8.4 to 12.4 | 9.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 10 | 6.6 | 4.0 to 9.2 | 7.0 |
| Marist Poll | 8 | 12.6 | 10.0 to 15.3 | 10.2 |
| Big Data Poll | 8 | 4.3 | 1.7 to 7.0 | 0.8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 8 | 12.8 | 11.6 to 13.9 | 11.7 |
| AP-NORC | 8 | 17.9 | 13.8 to 22.3 | 15.5 |
| American Research Group | 7 | 20.7 | 16.6 to 24.9 | 19.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 7 | -8.8 | -11.9 to -5.3 | -6.5 |
| Gallup | 7 | 12.7 | 9.3 to 16.4 | 13.1 |
| Emerson College | 7 | 6.1 | 2.9 to 9.8 | 3.0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 6 | 6.2 | 4.3 to 7.3 | 8.4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 6 | 17.2 | 14.5 to 20.7 | 13.9 |
| Verasight | 6 | 14.3 | 10.7 to 19.0 | 10.4 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 6 | 4.8 | 1.8 to 7.7 | 4.6 |
| Pew Research Center | 6 | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 16.4 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 6 | 8.3 | 5.7 to 11.0 | 5.2 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 5 | 10.0 | 6.0 to 13.8 | 7.9 |
| ActiVote | 5 | 5.4 | 3.3 to 7.5 | 4.5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 5 | 12.0 | 8.8 to 14.4 | 10.5 |
| AtlasIntel | 4 | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.1 | 8.3 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 4 | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.5 | 6.7 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 4 | 6.5 | 0.8 to 10.3 | 2.3 |
| Tavern Research | 4 | 11.0 | 7.0 to 15.5 | 6.6 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 4 | 5.3 | 4.0 to 6.5 | 3.9 |
| Cygnal | 3 | 5.0 | 2.0 to 7.0 | 8.3 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 3 | 12.3 | 5.0 to 23.0 | 12.8 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 3 | 5.0 | 3.0 to 8.0 | 4.5 |
| GrayHouse | 3 | 4.3 | 1.0 to 8.0 | 3.4 |