Focaldata
11 polls analyzed · population: 8 RV, 2 A, 1 LV
Election house effect
D+0.4
95%: R+1.6 to D+2.3 · 6 polls, 1 race
Approval house effect
+0.8 net approval
95%: −2.0 net approval to +3.3 net approval · 5 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.40).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.70).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 13 | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.1 |
| Morning Consult | 10 | 2.2 | 0.8 to 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Ipsos | 5 | 2.0 | 0.7 to 3.7 | 2.3 |
| Verasight | 5 | -2.4 | -4.4 to -0.4 | -1.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 5 | -2.7 | -4.5 to -1.0 | 0.1 |
| Cygnal | 5 | 1.1 | 0.1 to 2.2 | 1.1 |
| RMG Research | 4 | 3.6 | -0.3 to 7.5 | 3.3 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | -0.4 | -1.9 to 0.8 | 2.0 |
| HarrisX | 3 | 3.1 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 3.0 |
| Change Research | 3 | 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | -0.4 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | -0.3 | -5.0 to 2.0 | -0.4 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 9 | 0.3 | -2.2 to 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Morning Consult | 8 | -4.5 | -7.1 to -1.4 | -3.0 |
| RMG Research | 5 | -6.2 | -11.6 to -0.7 | -7.2 |
| Ipsos | 5 | 5.8 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 5.5 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | -4.3 | -6.0 to -3.0 | -3.1 |
| AP-NORC | 3 | 7.7 | 3.0 to 13.0 | 10.0 |
| Big Data Poll | 3 | -2.9 | -8.0 to 1.1 | -4.8 |
| Verasight | 3 | 2.3 | -4.0 to 6.0 | 4.9 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 2,275 RV | −25.0 net approval | +0.9 | release |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,537 RV | −18.0 net approval | +0.2 | release |
| May 5, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 3,167 RV | −14.9 net approval | +2.3 | release |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,534 RV | −12.0 net approval | +2.1 | release |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,148 A | −19.0 net approval | −5.3 | release |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,795 RV | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | release |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,537 RV | D+5.0 | R+0.7 | release |
| May 5, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 3,017 RV | D+7.4 | D+1.4 | release |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,534 RV | D+6.0 | D+0.6 | release |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | — LV | D+7.0 | D+2.0 | release |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 2,037 A | D+4.0 | R+0.5 | release |