Verasight
41 polls analyzed · population: 7 LV, 18 RV, 16 A
Election house effect
D+1.8
95%: D+0.5 to D+3.2 · 21 polls, 1 race
Approval house effect
−4.1 net approval
95%: −5.5 net approval to −2.7 net approval · 20 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.38, p = 0.010). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.45, p = 0.020). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 35 | 3.0 | 2.1 to 3.7 | 1.6 |
| Morning Consult | 29 | 4.1 | 3.2 to 4.9 | 4.0 |
| Ipsos | 19 | 4.7 | 3.6 to 6.0 | 3.8 |
| Echelon Insights | 18 | 2.8 | 1.9 to 3.9 | 2.7 |
| Quantus Insights | 18 | 2.9 | 1.9 to 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Emerson College | 12 | 0.6 | -1.2 to 2.3 | 1.9 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 12 | 7.3 | 5.2 to 9.2 | 5.5 |
| RMG Research | 10 | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 4.8 |
| Big Data Poll | 10 | 2.0 | -0.6 to 4.4 | 1.5 |
| Cygnal | 9 | 3.3 | 1.4 to 5.2 | 2.6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 8 | 2.0 | 0.6 to 3.6 | 1.1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 6 | 1.4 | -1.5 to 5.2 | 0.8 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 6 | 1.3 | 0.6 to 2.1 | 1.9 |
| The Winston Group | 5 | 0.7 | -1.4 to 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Focaldata | 5 | 2.4 | 0.4 to 4.4 | 1.5 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 5 | 3.6 | 1.8 to 6.0 | 1.4 |
| HarrisX | 4 | 6.8 | 5.3 to 9.0 | 4.5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 4 | -2.3 | -5.3 to 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 4 | 2.3 | 1.3 to 3.5 | 1.2 |
| CNN/SSRS | 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 to 4.0 | 1.0 |
| Impact Research | 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 to 4.0 | 1.4 |
| TIPP Insights | 3 | 5.3 | 1.0 to 8.0 | 1.7 |
| Survey 160 | 3 | -1.5 | -3.0 to 0.6 | -0.5 |
| J.L. Partners | 3 | 0.2 | -4.0 to 3.6 | 1.8 |
| KFF | 3 | -1.3 | -3.0 to 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Change Research | 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 to 3.0 | 1.1 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 3 | 2.2 | 0.6 to 3.0 | 2.0 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 46 | -3.3 | -4.3 to -2.4 | -2.7 |
| Morning Consult | 40 | -9.6 | -10.7 to -8.6 | -7.8 |
| Ipsos | 26 | 0.9 | -0.4 to 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Quantus Insights | 20 | -9.6 | -11.1 to -8.1 | -8.0 |
| RMG Research | 19 | -13.1 | -14.7 to -11.6 | -12.1 |
| Echelon Insights | 18 | -5.3 | -7.1 to -3.5 | -3.4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 15 | -1.5 | -2.9 to -0.1 | -1.4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 14 | 0.3 | -1.9 to 2.1 | 1.2 |
| American Research Group | 14 | 9.8 | 8.3 to 11.2 | 8.5 |
| ActiVote | 14 | -6.0 | -7.3 to -4.6 | -5.9 |
| Emerson College | 13 | -9.0 | -11.0 to -7.1 | -7.4 |
| AP-NORC | 13 | 5.7 | 2.3 to 8.8 | 5.1 |
| J.L. Partners | 12 | -11.7 | -15.3 to -8.6 | -9.4 |
| Big Data Poll | 10 | -9.6 | -11.8 to -7.4 | -9.7 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 10 | -3.3 | -5.3 to -1.0 | -2.5 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 9 | -4.1 | -6.2 to -2.0 | -2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 8 | -19.3 | -23.1 to -15.4 | -17.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 7 | -7.4 | -9.4 to -5.4 | -7.5 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 7 | -9.6 | -13.3 to -6.3 | -6.6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 7 | -7.9 | -10.0 to -5.7 | -5.8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 6 | 1.7 | -1.5 to 4.8 | 0.1 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 6 | -3.7 | -5.8 to -1.7 | -5.2 |
| Gallup | 6 | 3.3 | -0.7 to 6.7 | 2.7 |
| HarrisX | 6 | -14.3 | -19.0 to -10.7 | -10.4 |
| Tavern Research | 6 | -3.7 | -6.3 to -0.8 | -3.9 |
| Pew Research Center | 5 | 7.4 | 4.8 to 9.4 | 6.0 |
| The Winston Group | 5 | 1.8 | -2.6 to 6.2 | 0.2 |
| CNN/SSRS | 5 | 2.6 | 0.6 to 5.2 | 3.5 |
| Marist Poll | 5 | 0.6 | -1.0 to 2.4 | -0.2 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 4 | -4.8 | -9.5 to 0.0 | -3.7 |
| Survey 160 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.0 to 11.0 | 2.9 |
| GBAO | 3 | -3.0 | -5.0 to -1.0 | -2.6 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 3 | -1.0 | -2.0 to 1.0 | -0.5 |
| Angus Reid Global | 3 | 1.3 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Leger | 3 | -4.3 | -7.0 to -2.0 | -2.3 |
| Talker Research | 3 | -14.7 | -19.0 to -12.0 | -11.8 |
| Focaldata | 3 | -2.3 | -6.0 to 4.0 | -4.9 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 3 | -13.5 | -19.0 to -9.6 | -7.7 |