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Talker Research

4 polls analyzed · population: 4 A

Election house effect
Even
95%: R+3.4 to D+3.4 · 1 polls, 1 race
Approval house effect
+7.7 net approval
95%: +2.5 net approval to +12.2 net approval · 3 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov31.3-1.0 to 3.0-0.3

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Morning Consult73.71.9 to 5.73.9
YouGov79.99.0 to 10.79.1
Ipsos413.812.0 to 15.012.3
Emerson College35.0-0.4 to 9.04.3
Global Strategy Group313.713.0 to 14.010.4
Verasight314.712.0 to 19.011.8

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Feb 19, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 A−3.0 net approval+10.7release
Oct 31, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 A−2.0 net approval+9.3release
Aug 26, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 A−3.0 net approval+5.2release
Feb 19, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,000 AD+6.0D+0.9release