NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies)
19 polls analyzed · population: 7 A, 1 LV, 11 RV
Election house effect
R+0.1
95%: R+2.2 to D+2.0 · 9 polls, 1 race
Approval house effect
+1.1 net approval
95%: −1.3 net approval to +3.5 net approval · 10 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.41).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.58).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 16 | 0.6 | -0.6 to 1.8 | -0.4 |
| Morning Consult | 10 | 2.4 | 0.8 to 4.1 | 2.0 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 8 | 1.0 | -0.9 to 3.3 | -0.9 |
| Cygnal | 6 | 0.4 | -0.8 to 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Verasight | 6 | -1.3 | -2.1 to -0.6 | -1.9 |
| RMG Research | 5 | 4.4 | 0.2 to 8.4 | 2.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 5 | 0.2 | -0.6 to 1.2 | 1.5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 5 | 3.7 | 1.2 to 7.0 | 3.6 |
| Ipsos | 5 | 2.2 | -0.2 to 5.6 | 1.9 |
| Echelon Insights | 4 | 0.5 | -1.0 to 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 4 | 0.5 | -1.0 to 3.5 | 0.5 |
| Emerson College | 3 | -2.7 | -5.8 to -0.4 | 0.0 |
| Big Data Poll | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 to 6.0 | -0.4 |
| HarrisX | 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 to 6.0 | 2.5 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 21 | 1.8 | 0.3 to 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Morning Consult | 21 | -3.0 | -4.6 to -1.4 | -2.6 |
| Ipsos | 12 | 7.0 | 5.3 to 8.8 | 5.8 |
| RMG Research | 10 | -6.5 | -9.7 to -3.6 | -6.8 |
| Global Strategy Group | 10 | 2.3 | 0.9 to 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 8 | -2.6 | -5.4 to 0.3 | -0.6 |
| J.L. Partners | 7 | -6.6 | -10.2 to -2.9 | -4.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 7 | -2.6 | -4.6 to -0.3 | -2.8 |
| Verasight | 6 | 3.7 | 1.7 to 5.8 | 5.2 |
| TIPP Insights | 6 | -0.3 | -2.0 to 1.2 | -2.3 |
| HarrisX | 6 | -8.3 | -11.0 to -5.7 | -5.2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 6 | 5.3 | 2.5 to 8.0 | 6.5 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 6 | -2.0 | -5.0 to 1.7 | -1.3 |
| Echelon Insights | 5 | -1.8 | -3.8 to 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Emerson College | 5 | -5.4 | -7.7 to -2.4 | -2.2 |
| ActiVote | 5 | -2.6 | -3.8 to -1.6 | -0.7 |
| Gallup | 4 | 7.3 | 3.0 to 13.3 | 7.9 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 4 | 1.3 | -2.0 to 4.5 | 2.7 |
| AP-NORC | 4 | 16.0 | 14.5 to 17.5 | 10.3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 4 | -1.3 | -5.0 to 2.5 | -2.9 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 3 | 7.0 | 0.0 to 15.0 | 7.7 |
| Pew Research Center | 3 | 13.7 | 12.0 to 17.0 | 11.2 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 3 | 0.7 | -2.0 to 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 3 | -3.7 | -6.0 to -1.0 | -4.4 |
| Leger | 3 | 3.0 | -1.0 to 9.0 | 2.9 |
| American Research Group | 3 | 10.0 | 3.0 to 14.0 | 13.8 |
| Marist Poll | 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 to 8.0 | 5.0 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | 7.3 | 6.0 to 9.0 | 5.5 |