The Winston Group
12 polls analyzed · population: 12 RV
Election house effect
D+0.2
95%: R+2.1 to D+2.6 · 6 polls, 1 race
Approval house effect
−4.3 net approval
95%: −7.5 net approval to −1.2 net approval · 6 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.23).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.67).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 13 | 0.9 | -0.3 to 2.3 | -0.0 |
| Morning Consult | 11 | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Ipsos | 6 | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 2.2 |
| Verasight | 5 | -0.7 | -3.3 to 1.4 | -1.6 |
| Emerson College | 5 | 0.5 | -2.1 to 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | 1.7 | -2.0 to 4.0 | -0.5 |
| Echelon Insights | 3 | 2.3 | 1.0 to 4.0 | 1.1 |
| Cygnal | 3 | 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | 2.2 | 0.6 to 4.0 | 1.9 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 13 | -2.4 | -4.5 to -0.1 | -2.9 |
| Morning Consult | 12 | -9.6 | -11.4 to -7.8 | -8.1 |
| Ipsos | 8 | 0.5 | -1.6 to 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Emerson College | 6 | -9.3 | -11.7 to -6.8 | -7.7 |
| RMG Research | 6 | -13.7 | -18.0 to -9.7 | -12.3 |
| Verasight | 5 | -1.8 | -6.2 to 2.6 | -0.2 |
| J.L. Partners | 5 | -14.6 | -19.0 to -10.6 | -9.6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 5 | -2.8 | -5.4 to 0.0 | -1.6 |
| ActiVote | 4 | -7.6 | -10.8 to -4.5 | -6.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | -8.7 | -9.8 to -7.5 | -8.2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 3 | -1.3 | -3.0 to 2.0 | 1.0 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3 | -8.7 | -11.0 to -5.0 | -6.8 |
| Big Data Poll | 3 | -9.3 | -16.1 to -4.8 | -9.9 |
| Echelon Insights | 3 | -7.0 | -10.0 to -5.0 | -3.6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | -6.3 | -11.0 to -3.0 | -6.1 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 3 | -7.0 | -8.0 to -6.0 | -3.9 |
| American Research Group | 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 to 8.0 | 8.3 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 3 | -3.3 | -4.0 to -3.0 | -2.7 |
| TIPP Insights | 3 | -4.0 | -7.0 to -1.0 | -7.7 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 3 | -7.3 | -9.0 to -6.0 | -5.5 |
| AP-NORC | 3 | 5.0 | 1.0 to 7.0 | 4.9 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 RV | −21.0 net approval | −2.8 | release |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 RV | −21.0 net approval | −5.5 | release |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 RV | −12.0 net approval | −0.7 | release |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 RV | −21.0 net approval | −8.2 | release |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 RV | −17.0 net approval | −8.1 | release |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 RV | −11.0 net approval | −3.5 | release |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | D+7.0 | D+1.3 | release |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | D+9.0 | D+3.6 | release |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | release |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | D+5.0 | D+1.0 | release |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | D+4.0 | D+0.6 | release |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | D+4.0 | D+1.1 | release |