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The Bullfinch Group

17 polls analyzed · population: 2 LV, 15 RV

Election house effect
D+2.8
95%: D+0.1 to D+5.5 · 6 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
−0.4 net approval
95%: −3.0 net approval to +2.1 net approval · 11 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 3.75, p < 0.001).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.02).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov74.12.4 to 5.72.5
Morning Consult76.03.7 to 8.44.9
Emerson College3-3.4-4.8 to -2.52.9
Ipsos33.32.0 to 5.04.7

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov281.60.2 to 3.01.0
Morning Consult24-3.9-5.5 to -2.3-4.1
Ipsos175.23.3 to 7.24.3
RMG Research12-7.5-10.8 to -4.4-8.3
Quantus Insights9-5.8-8.5 to -3.0-4.3
Emerson College9-4.1-7.5 to -0.9-3.7
American Research Group810.87.6 to 15.012.3
Global Strategy Group72.40.0 to 4.72.3
Echelon Insights6-0.2-3.5 to 3.00.3
Big Data Poll6-8.1-12.2 to -3.3-5.9
J.L. Partners6-6.7-11.0 to -1.5-5.7
ActiVote6-2.2-5.1 to 0.8-2.2
TIPP Insights5-2.8-7.2 to 1.2-3.8
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)51.6-3.0 to 6.01.2
Gallup46.33.0 to 10.06.4
Verasight44.80.0 to 9.53.7
HarrisX4-5.8-7.5 to -4.0-6.7
John Zogby Strategies4-2.5-3.9 to -0.3-2.9
Clarity Campaign Labs4-1.8-7.0 to 3.5-2.1
AP-NORC412.310.5 to 14.08.8
McLaughlin & Associates3-7.3-10.0 to -3.3-4.0
NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies)3-0.7-3.0 to 2.0-1.5
InsiderAdvantage3-15.8-21.3 to -9.0-13.2
Quinnipiac University32.72.0 to 3.05.0
The Winston Group37.06.0 to 8.03.9
Civiqs32.0-1.0 to 5.01.4
SurveyMonkey35.02.0 to 8.03.8
Marist Poll34.0-2.0 to 7.03.5
AtlasIntel3-0.6-3.4 to 1.11.6

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Jun 16, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−14.0 net approval+3.2release
Jun 2, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−13.0 net approval+5.2release
Jan 3, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−17.0 net approval−6.2release
Nov 25, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−14.0 net approval−1.9release
Oct 16, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−11.0 net approval−2.1release
Sep 11, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,700 RV−4.0 net approval+3.2release
Jul 22, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−14.0 net approval−5.7release
Jun 20, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,006 RV−11.0 net approval−3.8release
May 13, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−6.0 net approval−0.4release
Apr 24, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−5.0 net approval+2.0release
Feb 26, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV+1.0 net approval0release
Aug 7, 20262026 Idaho Senate608 LVR+4.0D+15.1release
Jul 16, 20262026 Montana Senate793 LVR+12.0D+3.7release
Jun 16, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,000 RVD+8.0D+2.3release
Jun 2, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,000 RVD+6.0D+0.3release
Jun 1, 20262026 Idaho Senate774 RVR+4.0D+13.2release
Jan 3, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,000 RVD+11.0D+6.9release