2026 Montana Senate
Margin = Seth Bodnar − Kurt Alme. 18 polls from 13 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 14, 2026: R+15.7(95% band R+20.4 to R+10.9).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 1 | R+7.7 | R+2.5 |
| GrayHouse | 1 | R+7.3 | R+1.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 2 | R+6.9 | R+1.6 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 1 | R+3.5 | Even |
| Peak Insights | 2 | R+3.1 | R+3.4 |
| Hart Research Associates | 2 | R+2.4 | D+1.2 |
| GQR | 1 | D+1.5 | D+1.6 |
| Aspect Strategic | 1 | D+3.3 | D+0.8 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 1 | D+3.7 | D+2.8 |
| Tavern Research | 3 | D+6.9 | D+2.7 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 1 | D+7.2 | D+2.2 |
| Change Research | 1 | D+10.5 | D+0.8 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 1 | D+17.4 | D+3.2 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 686 LV | R+25.0 | R+24.1 | release via votehub |
| Oct 7, 2026 – Oct 12, 2026 | Peak Insights R | 500 LV | R+15.0 | R+11.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners | 405 LV | D+2.0 | R+0.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 19, 2026 – Sep 24, 2026 | American Pulse Research & Polling | 604 LV | R+19.0 | R+18.9 | release via votehub |
| Sep 14, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026 | Quantus Insights R | 625 LV | R+20.0 | R+17.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026 | Aspect Strategic | 715 LV | R+12.0 | R+12.7 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026 | Rutgers-Eagleton | 845 RV | R+8.0 | R+10.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 23, 2026 – Aug 25, 2026 | Peak Insights R | 600 LV | R+22.0 | R+18.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 1, 2026 – Aug 4, 2026 | Hart Research Associates D | 800 LV | R+15.0 | R+16.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 23, 2026 – Jul 27, 2026 | Tavern Research D | 517 LV | R+2.0 | R+4.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 23, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026 | GQR D | 500 LV | R+14.0 | R+15.5 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 13, 2026 – Jul 16, 2026 | The Bullfinch Group R | 793 LV | R+12.0 | R+13.6 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jun 23, 2026 – Jun 24, 2026 | GrayHouse R | 500 LV | R+24.0 | R+22.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jun 18, 2026 – Jun 24, 2026 | Hart Research Associates D | 800 LV | R+22.0 | R+23.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Jun 16, 2026 – Jun 19, 2026 | Tavern Research | 400 LV | R+24.0 | R+25.7 | release via votehub |
| Jun 8, 2026 – Jun 11, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategies R | 500 LV | R+24.0 | R+20.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| May 13, 2026 – May 18, 2026 | Tavern Research D | 607 LV | Even | R+2.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Mar 17, 2026 – Mar 20, 2026 | Change Research D | 616 LV | R+2.0 | R+2.9 | release via wikipedia |