Tavern Research
14 polls analyzed · population: 14 LV
Election house effect
D+2.7
95%: D+0.1 to D+5.3 · 8 polls, 5 races
Approval house effect
−0.3 net approval
95%: −3.3 net approval to +2.7 net approval · 6 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 2.45, p = 0.020).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.81).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 14 | 2.6 | 0.1 to 5.0 | 1.2 |
| Morning Consult | 13 | -6.2 | -8.7 to -4.1 | -4.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 7 | -2.7 | -5.5 to -0.1 | -4.2 |
| J.L. Partners | 6 | -3.3 | -5.7 to -1.0 | -5.5 |
| Emerson College | 6 | -3.2 | -5.3 to -0.9 | -3.6 |
| Big Data Poll | 6 | -4.8 | -7.0 to -2.4 | -5.8 |
| Ipsos | 6 | 6.2 | 2.3 to 9.3 | 4.5 |
| Verasight | 6 | 3.7 | 0.8 to 6.3 | 3.9 |
| RMG Research | 5 | -9.2 | -11.2 to -7.4 | -8.2 |
| Echelon Insights | 5 | 2.8 | 1.0 to 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Marist Poll | 5 | 4.2 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 3.7 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 5 | 2.0 | -0.2 to 3.8 | 1.4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 4 | 1.3 | -3.0 to 5.3 | 2.5 |
| American Research Group | 4 | 16.0 | 14.5 to 18.0 | 12.4 |
| HarrisX | 4 | -11.0 | -15.5 to -7.0 | -6.6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 4 | 1.5 | -0.5 to 3.5 | -2.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 4 | 4.5 | 3.5 to 5.5 | 5.1 |
| Pew Research Center | 3 | 10.7 | 7.0 to 15.0 | 9.8 |
| AP-NORC | 3 | 13.0 | 8.0 to 17.0 | 9.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 3 | -17.7 | -20.0 to -15.0 | -13.1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3 | -3.7 | -5.0 to -2.0 | -2.7 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 528 LV | −23.0 net approval | −5.8 | release |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,531 LV | −14.0 net approval | +1.5 | release |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,508 LV | −14.0 net approval | −1.4 | release |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 2,997 LV | −9.0 net approval | +3.6 | release |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,247 LV | −11.0 net approval | −0.4 | release |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,567 LV | −8.0 net approval | +2.6 | release |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 2026 Montana Senate | 517 LV | R+2.0 | D+13.5 | release |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 2026 Montana Senate | 400 LV | R+24.0 | R+7.4 | release |
| May 18, 2026 | 2026 Montana Senate | 607 LV | Even | D+14.5 | release |
| May 11, 2026 | 2026 Nebraska Senate | 1,165 LV | D+5.0 | D+4.3 | release |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 502 LV | D+1.0 | R+4.8 | release |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2026 California Governor | 1,097 LV | R+6.0 | D+5.5 | release |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2026 Kansas Senate | 1,013 LV | R+8.0 | R+2.1 | release |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2026 California Governor | 1,001 LV | R+3.0 | D+4.1 | release |