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Marist Poll

33 polls analyzed · population: 25 RV, 8 LV

Election house effect
D+2.4
95%: D+0.9 to D+3.9 · 23 polls, 12 races
Approval house effect
−3.9 net approval
95%: −6.0 net approval to −1.9 net approval · 10 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.64).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.23, p = 0.010). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov125.43.9 to 7.02.1
Suffolk University8-0.8-2.9 to 1.51.2
Trafalgar Group64.72.0 to 7.33.9
Big Data Poll64.11.5 to 6.32.1
Emerson College62.90.7 to 5.02.5
co/efficient67.55.2 to 9.76.0
CNN/SSRS52.0-1.2 to 5.21.6
Quantus Insights55.53.2 to 7.84.0
The New York Times/Siena53.21.2 to 5.42.6
Morning Consult58.26.2 to 10.64.5
Guidant Polling & Strategy44.42.8 to 6.22.5
Cygnal45.53.8 to 7.23.1
CBS News/YouGov41.00.0 to 3.02.0
InsiderAdvantage44.31.5 to 7.03.3
Rasmussen Reports43.31.0 to 5.52.6
Ipsos310.05.0 to 13.04.3
HarrisX39.08.0 to 10.05.0

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov23-3.5-4.8 to -2.2-2.5
Morning Consult20-8.5-9.9 to -7.0-7.7
Ipsos122.00.7 to 3.30.8
RMG Research12-12.1-14.0 to -9.9-11.9
Quantus Insights11-7.6-8.8 to -6.5-7.8
HarrisX8-12.6-15.3 to -10.0-10.2
TIPP Insights8-6.1-7.6 to -4.4-7.3
Global Strategy Group7-1.9-3.0 to -0.7-1.2
Echelon Insights7-3.3-4.3 to -2.4-3.2
Quinnipiac University61.3-1.3 to 3.71.4
Emerson College6-7.3-9.3 to -5.4-7.3
J.L. Partners5-10.2-12.6 to -7.6-9.2
John Zogby Strategies5-7.8-11.0 to -4.4-6.4
American Research Group58.85.2 to 11.28.7
Verasight5-0.6-2.4 to 1.00.2
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)5-2.4-4.2 to -0.6-2.3
Tavern Research5-4.2-7.6 to -0.4-3.7
AP-NORC46.02.5 to 9.55.3
Marquette Law School Poll4-1.3-3.5 to 1.5-1.8
Trafalgar Group3-19.1-20.0 to -18.5-16.7
InsiderAdvantage3-17.0-19.0 to -15.0-16.8
Big Data Poll3-9.0-12.1 to -4.0-9.5
The Bullfinch Group3-4.0-7.0 to 2.0-3.5
NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies)3-7.0-8.0 to -6.0-5.0
Pew Research Center37.76.0 to 10.06.2
CNN/SSRS32.0-2.0 to 7.03.7

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Jun 11, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,162 RV−21.0 net approval−3.8release
Apr 30, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,155 RV−20.0 net approval−2.8release
Mar 4, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,392 RV−17.0 net approval−2.9release
Jan 30, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,326 RV−18.0 net approval−4.8release
Jan 13, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,222 RV−18.0 net approval−6.0release
Dec 11, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,261 RV−15.0 net approval−4.4release
Nov 13, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,291 RV−17.0 net approval−4.2release
Sep 26, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,329 RV−11.0 net approval−2.6release
Jun 25, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,206 RV−9.0 net approval−2.1release
Feb 26, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,533 RV−6.0 net approval−7.0release
Oct 18, 20262026 Ohio Senate1,176 LVD+4.0D+1.1release
Oct 18, 20262026 Michigan Senate— LVD+2.0R+0.3release
Oct 18, 20262026 Ohio Governor1,176 LVD+7.0D+3.4release
Oct 18, 20262026 Michigan Governor— LVD+6.0D+0.3release
Oct 11, 20262026 Texas Senate— LVD+2.0R+0.3release
Oct 11, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,100 LVD+3.0D+2.1release
Oct 11, 20262026 Texas Governor— LVR+4.0R+1.5release
Oct 11, 20262026 Iowa Governor1,100 LVD+7.0D+0.1release
Oct 4, 20262026 Maine Senate1,505 RVD+4.0D+1.9release
Oct 4, 20262026 New York Governor1,361 RVD+11.0D+0.2release
Oct 4, 20262026 Maine Governor1,505 RVD+12.0D+0.8release
Sep 27, 20262026 Ohio Senate1,298 RVD+8.0D+4.3release
Sep 27, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,235 RVD+7.0D+4.2release
Sep 27, 20262026 Ohio Governor1,298 RVD+6.0D+2.6release
Sep 27, 20262026 Michigan Governor1,235 RVD+12.0D+5.5release
Sep 20, 20262026 Texas Senate1,139 RVD+6.0D+3.3release
Sep 20, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,050 RVD+8.0D+6.6release
Sep 20, 20262026 Texas Governor1,139 RVD+3.0D+5.7release
Sep 20, 20262026 Iowa Governor1,050 RVD+12.0D+4.6release
Apr 30, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,155 RVD+10.0D+4.2release
Mar 4, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,392 RVD+9.0D+4.0release
Feb 19, 20262026 New York Governor1,442 RVD+17.0D+2.0release
Nov 13, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot1,291 RVD+14.0D+10.0release