Rasmussen Reports
18 polls analyzed · population: 18 LV
Election house effect
R+0.2
95%: R+1.9 to D+1.5 · 18 polls, 13 races
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 4.80, p < 0.001).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 10 | -0.4 | -1.8 to 0.8 | -0.4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 7 | 1.4 | -0.5 to 3.1 | 0.7 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 5 | -0.7 | -3.8 to 2.4 | 0.0 |
| Morning Consult | 5 | 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 1.9 |
| co/efficient | 4 | 14.8 | 5.8 to 28.5 | 3.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | 3.5 | 1.9 to 5.0 | 1.4 |
| Marist Poll | 4 | -3.3 | -5.5 to -1.0 | -2.6 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 3 | 0.7 | -1.0 to 2.0 | -0.8 |
| Big Data Poll | 3 | -0.2 | -1.0 to 1.0 | -0.5 |
| Suffolk University | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | -1.3 |
| CNN/SSRS | 3 | 1.7 | -2.0 to 6.0 | -1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 3 | 1.7 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Ipsos | 3 | 3.0 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 1.8 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 901 LV | R+2.0 | R+5.0 | release |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2026 Michigan Senate | 798 LV | D+2.0 | R+0.3 | release |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 2026 South Carolina Senate | 837 LV | R+4.0 | R+2.3 | release |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 2026 Maine Senate | 804 LV | D+2.0 | R+0.1 | release |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 2026 Minnesota Senate | 856 LV | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | release |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 2026 Iowa Senate | 1,048 LV | D+4.0 | D+2.9 | release |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2026 Texas Senate | 1,128 LV | D+1.0 | R+1.6 | release |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 1,115 LV | D+3.0 | R+0.7 | release |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2026 South Carolina Senate | 1,006 LV | R+5.0 | R+3.1 | release |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2026 Georgia Senate | 1,019 LV | D+9.0 | R+0.1 | release |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2026 Alaska Senate | 1,188 LV | D+32.0 | D+26.6 | release |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2026 Georgia Governor | 1,019 LV | R+3.0 | R+2.1 | release |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 2026 New Hampshire Senate | 1,000 LV | D+11.0 | D+4.5 | release |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 2026 Maine Senate | 1,033 LV | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | release |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 2026 Iowa Senate | 1,031 LV | D+5.0 | D+3.5 | release |
| May 20, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 2,161 LV | D+6.0 | R+0.2 | release |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 2,273 LV | D+6.0 | D+1.8 | release |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2025 New Jersey Governor | 955 LV | D+6.0 | D+0.6 | release |