Public Opinion Strategies
6 polls analyzed · population: 2 LV, 4 RV
Election house effect
R+2.5
95%: R+5.3 to D+0.2 · 5 polls, 4 races
Approval house effect
+0.4 net approval
95%: −5.8 net approval to +6.6 net approval · 1 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.42).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | -0.4 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 3 | 0.3 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 1.8 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 RV | +2.0 net approval | +1.0 | release |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 2026 Nevada Governor | — LV | R+9.0 | R+5.5 | release |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 2026 Oregon Governor | 600 RV | R+4.0 | R+5.0 | release |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 2026 Montana Senate | 500 LV | R+24.0 | R+7.7 | release |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | D+3.0 | R+2.5 | release |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | R+2.0 | R+2.7 | release |