UMass Amherst/YouGov
12 polls analyzed · population: 4 RV, 6 A, 2 LV
Election house effect
D+0.1
95%: R+2.3 to D+2.6 · 8 polls, 5 races
Approval house effect
−6.5 net approval
95%: −10.8 net approval to −2.1 net approval · 4 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.29, p = 0.040). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 5 | -0.2 | -1.2 to 0.6 | -0.1 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 9 | -6.1 | -8.3 to -4.0 | -5.1 |
| Morning Consult | 8 | -10.8 | -14.3 to -7.0 | -10.3 |
| J.L. Partners | 6 | -16.3 | -19.0 to -13.7 | -11.8 |
| RMG Research | 5 | -13.6 | -19.0 to -8.2 | -14.5 |
| Ipsos | 5 | -2.6 | -6.8 to 1.2 | -1.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | -13.6 | -17.8 to -7.5 | -10.4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 4 | -2.0 | -5.0 to 1.0 | -3.8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 3 | -2.7 | -11.0 to 5.0 | -1.2 |
| HarrisX | 3 | -12.3 | -23.0 to -5.0 | -12.8 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 3 | -7.0 | -15.0 to 0.0 | -7.7 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3 | -12.3 | -19.0 to -9.0 | -9.0 |
| Emerson College | 3 | -17.1 | -19.5 to -13.0 | -9.9 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | -9.7 | -15.0 to -4.0 | -8.3 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 A | −29.0 net approval | −13.5 | release |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 A | −16.0 net approval | −7.1 | release |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 A | −20.0 net approval | −12.0 | release |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 A | −7.0 net approval | −3.2 | release |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 2026 Massachusetts Senate | 800 RV | D+27.0 | D+2.7 | release |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 2026 Massachusetts Governor | 800 RV | D+25.0 | D+2.9 | release |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2026 Maine Senate | 650 LV | D+5.0 | D+2.2 | release |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2026 Maine Governor | 650 LV | D+11.0 | R+0.4 | release |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 2026 Massachusetts Senate | 800 RV | D+21.0 | R+1.4 | release |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 2026 Massachusetts Governor | 800 RV | D+20.0 | R+1.9 | release |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2026 Massachusetts Governor | 800 A | D+25.0 | D+1.8 | release |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 A | D+3.0 | R+0.4 | release |