Impact Research
20 polls analyzed · population: 15 LV, 5 RV · declared affiliation: D
Election house effect
D+0.4
95%: R+1.6 to D+2.4 · 18 polls, 9 races
Approval house effect
+1.4 net approval
95%: −2.9 net approval to +5.6 net approval · 2 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.04).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 6 | 1.0 | -1.5 to 3.0 | 2.6 |
| YouGov | 6 | 1.3 | -0.3 to 3.3 | 0.2 |
| Ipsos | 4 | 3.0 | 1.3 to 5.8 | 2.4 |
| Verasight | 3 | -3.7 | -4.0 to -3.0 | -1.4 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 4 | 2.5 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 2.9 |
| Morning Consult | 4 | -3.0 | -4.0 to -1.8 | -2.3 |
| Ipsos | 4 | 7.8 | 5.8 to 10.0 | 6.2 |