SoCal Strategies
11 polls analyzed · population: 8 LV, 3 A
Election house effect
R+0.7
95%: R+3.1 to D+1.8 · 9 polls, 6 races
Approval house effect
+4.8 net approval
95%: −1.4 net approval to +10.4 net approval · 2 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.50).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 5 | 1.5 | -2.2 to 4.7 | -0.6 |
| YouGov | 3 | -1.7 | -5.0 to 3.0 | -1.0 |
| A2 Insights | 3 | 0.1 | -3.7 to 2.1 | -0.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | 2.3 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.9 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 4 | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 9.5 |
| Morning Consult | 3 | 0.1 | -1.7 to 1.0 | 1.1 |
| YouGov | 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 to 9.0 | 6.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | -0.1 | -1.0 to 0.6 | 0.9 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 700 A | −3.0 net approval | +5.2 | release |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 742 A | +13.0 net approval | +6.5 | release |
| Sep 13, 2026 | 2026 Texas Senate | 649 LV | D+5.0 | D+2.1 | release |
| Sep 13, 2026 | 2026 Texas Governor | 649 LV | R+8.0 | R+5.2 | release |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 2026 Michigan Senate | 640 LV | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | release |
| Jun 21, 2026 | 2026 Texas Senate | 800 LV | R+1.4 | R+3.2 | release |
| Jun 21, 2026 | 2026 Texas Governor | 800 LV | R+10.7 | R+5.4 | release |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2025 Virginia Governor | 800 LV | D+10.0 | D+1.0 | release |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2025 New Jersey Governor | 800 LV | D+7.0 | D+1.7 | release |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 2025 Virginia Governor | 800 LV | D+12.0 | D+3.0 | release |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 700 A | D+5.0 | D+2.3 | release |