Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage
8 polls analyzed · population: 2 RV, 6 LV
Election house effect
R+2.8
95%: R+5.8 to D+0.4 · 3 polls, 2 races
Approval house effect
+6.8 net approval
95%: +3.3 net approval to +10.1 net approval · 5 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.68).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 14 | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 8.2 |
| Morning Consult | 12 | 7.0 | 5.1 to 8.9 | 3.0 |
| RMG Research | 8 | 0.2 | -2.5 to 3.3 | -1.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 7 | 3.2 | 1.6 to 4.8 | 2.9 |
| Ipsos | 6 | 13.5 | 11.8 to 15.6 | 11.5 |
| Emerson College | 4 | 1.6 | -0.0 to 2.8 | 3.4 |
| J.L. Partners | 4 | 8.8 | 4.6 to 13.1 | 1.5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 4 | 13.2 | 8.2 to 18.8 | 9.5 |
| TIPP Insights | 4 | 6.9 | 3.2 to 9.7 | 3.4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 3 | 4.8 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 3.2 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 3 | 5.6 | 2.2 to 12.0 | 4.9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 3 | 17.3 | 12.6 to 24.1 | 12.1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3 | 8.6 | 4.0 to 13.0 | 4.3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | 3.6 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 5.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 3 | 13.3 | 9.3 to 18.1 | 8.8 |
| CNN/SSRS | 3 | 12.7 | 8.2 to 16.6 | 14.3 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,200 LV | +2.0 net approval | +10.0 | release |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,098 LV | +8.1 net approval | +13.7 | release |
| May 1, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,200 LV | +2.0 net approval | +8.3 | release |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 800 RV | +4.2 net approval | +5.5 | release |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,321 RV | +8.6 net approval | +5.8 | release |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2025 Virginia Governor | 800 LV | D+4.1 | R+4.9 | release |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2025 Virginia Governor | 1,039 LV | D+2.2 | R+6.4 | release |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2025 New Jersey Governor | 800 LV | D+1.0 | R+4.4 | release |