Bowling Green State University/YouGov
13 polls analyzed · population: 9 RV, 4 LV
Election house effect
D+0.2
95%: R+2.0 to D+2.5 · 12 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
−2.2 net approval
95%: −8.0 net approval to +4.1 net approval · 1 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.35, p = 0.030). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 3 | 3.3 | 1.0 to 5.0 | -0.1 |
| Echelon Insights | 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 to 4.0 | 1.0 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 3 | -3.3 | -5.0 to -2.0 | -0.8 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,200 RV | −17.0 net approval | −3.3 | release |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 1,000 LV | D+6.0 | D+2.8 | release |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Governor | 1,000 LV | D+6.0 | D+2.5 | release |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 1,000 LV | D+3.0 | R+0.9 | release |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Governor | 1,000 LV | D+3.0 | D+0.4 | release |
| Apr 14, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 1,000 RV | R+3.0 | R+3.6 | release |
| Apr 14, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Governor | 1,000 RV | R+1.0 | R+1.9 | release |
| Feb 18, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,200 RV | D+8.0 | D+2.9 | release |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 800 RV | D+1.0 | D+1.9 | release |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2026 Ohio Governor | 800 RV | R+3.0 | R+1.4 | release |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 800 RV | R+3.0 | D+0.3 | release |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 2026 Ohio Governor | 800 RV | R+5.0 | R+2.2 | release |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 800 RV | R+6.0 | R+2.0 | release |