Tulchin Research

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.07, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

All polls