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Washington Post/George Mason University

6 polls analyzed · population: 6 LV

Election house effect
D+1.8
95%: R+0.7 to D+4.3 · 6 polls, 5 races

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.25).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Suffolk University5-0.1-3.2 to 3.00.7
co/efficient46.04.8 to 7.05.4
Emerson College32.60.5 to 5.31.9
Trafalgar Group34.41.5 to 6.83.3

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Oct 5, 20262026 Maine Senate800 LVD+5.0D+2.9release
Oct 5, 20262026 Maine Governor800 LVD+13.0D+1.8release
Sep 14, 20262026 Michigan Senate803 LVD+3.0D+0.5release
Sep 14, 20262026 Michigan Governor803 LVD+12.0D+5.1release
Oct 20, 20252025 Virginia Governor927 LVD+12.0D+3.4release
Sep 29, 20252025 Virginia Governor1,002 LVD+12.0D+3.5release