OnMessage
4 polls analyzed · population: 4 LV · declared affiliation: R
Election house effect
R+1.2
95%: R+4.5 to D+2.3 · 2 polls, 2 races
Approval house effect
+1.8 net approval
95%: −3.2 net approval to +6.4 net approval · 2 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 4 | 2.0 | -0.3 to 4.3 | 3.2 |
| RMG Research | 4 | -4.0 | -7.5 to -0.5 | -6.2 |
| Morning Consult | 4 | 2.0 | 0.0 to 5.3 | -1.9 |
| J.L. Partners | 3 | -2.3 | -6.0 to 2.0 | -3.5 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | -2.8 | -5.7 to 0.0 | -2.1 |
| Ipsos | 3 | 9.3 | 6.0 to 13.0 | 6.5 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,800 LV | −9.0 net approval | +5.1 | release |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,000 LV | +3.0 net approval | +1.5 | release |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 600 LV | D+2.0 | D+1.2 | release |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 2025 Virginia Governor | 800 LV | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | release |