2026 New Mexico Senate
Margin = Ben Ray Luján − Larry Marker. 3 polls from 2 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: D+16.7(95% band D+10.9 to D+22.6).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2 | R+1.1 | R+0.4 |
| SurveyUSA | 1 | D+1.3 | R+1.1 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 9, 2026 | Research & Polling Inc. | 1,125 LV | D+16.0 | D+16.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 25, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 576 LV | D+18.0 | D+19.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 28, 2026 | Research & Polling Inc. | 516 LV | D+15.0 | D+15.5 | release via votehub,wikipedia |