2026 Arkansas Senate
Margin = Hallie Shoffner − Tom Cotton. 6 polls from 4 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: R+9.3(95% band R+15.0 to R+3.4).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners | 1 | R+6.9 | D+0.1 |
| GrayHouse | 2 | R+5.8 | R+1.8 |
| 2040 Strategy Group | 1 | D+5.9 | D+2.0 |
| Hendrix College | 2 | D+6.1 | D+1.4 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026 | Hendrix College | 709 LV | R+9.0 | R+10.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026 | GrayHouse R | 550 LV | R+11.0 | R+9.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 18, 2026 | J.L. Partners | 803 LV | R+16.0 | R+16.2 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 11, 2026 – Aug 12, 2026 | Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | D+3.0 | D+1.7 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 17, 2026 – Jul 25, 2026 | 2040 Strategy Group D | 586 LV | R+3.0 | R+5.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 7, 2026 – Feb 9, 2026 | GrayHouse R | 550 LV | R+22.0 | R+20.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |