David Binder Research
4 polls analyzed · population: 2 LV, 2 ?
Election house effect
D+0.3
95%: R+2.7 to D+3.1 · 4 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evitarus | 3 | -3.0 | -8.0 to 0.0 | -1.0 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 2026 | 2026 California Governor | — | R+1.0 | R+1.3 | release |
| May 11, 2026 | 2026 California Governor | — | R+1.0 | D+1.1 | release |
| Apr 6, 2026 | 2026 California Governor | 800 LV | R+18.0 | R+7.6 | release |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2026 California Governor | 800 LV | R+9.0 | D+1.9 | release |