Senate · general election
2026 South Dakota Senate
Mike Rounds leads Brian Bengs by 8.4 points in the polling consensus as of Oct 21, 2026 (95% band R+12.8 to R+4.2), from 14 polls by 10 pollsters.
Consensus
R+8.4
Brian Bengs − Mike Rounds, as of Oct 21, 2026 · band R+12.8 to R+4.2
Polls
14
10 pollsters · since Jul 31, 2025
Newest poll
Oct 20
Emerson College · R+8.0 · 803 LV
Shift · last 90 days
R+0.8
Consensus moved from R+7.6 (Jul 22, 2026) to R+8.4
The race over time
Consensus and every poll
The line is the consensus with its 95% band. Each dot is one poll, colored by how far it landed from the consensus: bluer ran more Democratic, redder more Republican.
- The consensus removes each pollster's house effect before averaging
- Click a dot to open that poll's release
Pollsters in this race
Who landed where
Each bar is a pollster's average distance from the consensus of all other polls at the same time, in this race only.
- Faded bars rest on a single poll here, so one result can move them a lot
- Compare with each pollster's overall lean across every race in the table
Show as table
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here← DR → | Overall lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 1 | 16.8 ▸ | R+3.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 1 | 14.9 ▸ | R+1.8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1 | 11.9 ▸ | R+1.4 |
| Emerson College / KELOLAND | 1 | 0.6 | D+0.3 |
| Emerson College | 1 | 0.7 | D+0.1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 5 | 0.7 | D+0.7 |
| Zenith Research | 1 | 1.7 | D+1.3 |
| Impact Research | 1 | 8.3 | D+0.7 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 1 | 9.7 | D+3.7 |
| Lake Research Partners | 1 | ◂ 15.1 | D+0.7 |
Polls
All polls
The arrow shows each pollster's overall lean across every race. The pill shows how far each poll landed from the consensus on its end date, on the side it leaned. "House-effect adjusted" is the poll with the pollster's overall lean removed.
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | vs consensus← DR → | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19–20, 2026 | Emerson College | 803 LV | R+8.0 | 0.7 | R+7.9 | release via votehub |
| Oct 19–20, 2026 | Emerson College / KELOLAND | 803 LV | R+8.0 | 0.6 | R+8.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 17–19, 2026 | Quantus Insights R sponsor | 657 LV | R+22.0 | 14.9 ▸ | R+19.4 | release via votehub, wikipedia |
| Oct 12–14, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 500 LV | R+19.0 | 11.9 ▸ | R+17.4 | release via votehub |
| Oct 6–8, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners D sponsor | 400 LV | D+1.0 | 9.7 | R+2.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 24–27, 2026 | Zenith Research | 500 LV | R+6.0 | 1.7 | R+6.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 8–9, 2026 | Public Policy Polling D sponsor | 629 RV | R+3.0 | 4.8 | R+3.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 26–30, 2026 | Lake Research Partners D sponsor | 500 LV | D+7.0 | ◂ 15.1 | D+6.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 13–17, 2026 | Impact Research D sponsor | 500 LV | Even | 8.3 | R+0.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 6–9, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategies R sponsor | 500 LV | R+23.0 | 16.8 ▸ | R+19.0 | release via wikipedia |
| May 29–30, 2026 | Public Policy Polling D sponsor | 726 RV | R+4.0 | 6.0 | R+4.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 17–18, 2026 | Public Policy Polling D sponsor | 685 RV | R+12.0 | 2.5 | R+12.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Nov 13–14, 2025 | Public Policy Polling D sponsor | 814 RV | R+13.0 | 2.6 | R+13.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 30–31, 2025 | Public Policy Polling D sponsor | 524 LV | R+13.0 | 2.3 | R+13.6 | release via wikipedia |