New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group

Where New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group sits in the field

Gray dots are the 87 other ranked election pollsters; the colored bar is New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group's 95% interval. 62 of the 87 sit closer to the purple line.

Same race, same weeks

Average gap between New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group's polls and each other pollster's, on polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. No model involved.

• Left of the line: New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group ran more Democratic. Right: more Republican
• The number after the gap is how many matched pairs it rests on

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): how tightly its polls cluster

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than the typical pollster's do (dispersion 0.16, p = 0.010). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): lean over time

Each dot is one poll's distance from its race's consensus.

• Solid line: rolling two-month average. Dashed line: overall house effect
• Reveals a lean that comes and goes, which one number would hide

Where it polls

Election polls by state (3).

• Measured against others in the same races, so a firm is judged mostly in the states it polls

All polls

Result is the margin as each race defines it. The line is the race consensus on each poll's end date. The pill shows how many points the poll landed from it, on the side it leaned: left for more Democratic (or less favorable to Trump), right for more Republican (or more favorable to Trump).