Scored against certified results
Accuracy
House effects show how pollsters lean relative to each other; this page checks them against what voters did. We score every poll that ended within 21 days of an election. Error is the poll's margin minus the actual margin.
Races scored
2
43 final polls from 28 pollsters
Average poll miss
7.7 pts
Mean absolute error on the margin
Direction of the miss
R+7.7
Polls overstated the Republican on average
Consensus miss
8.0 pts
Our final average's mean absolute error
2025 rests on two races.
Only two races are scored (New Jersey Governor and Virginia Governor), so these numbers say little about any one pollster.
By cycle
Which way the polls missed
The average final poll's signed error. D+ means polls overstated the Democrat; R+, the Republican. The direction flips from cycle to cycle.
Pollsters · 2025
Which way each pollster missed
Each pollster's average signed error with its 95% interval, averaged within each race first so ten polls of one race count once. The 14 pollsters with the most scored races.
- Across 28 pollsters, the direction of the miss was modestly related to house effect (correlation 0.37, using house effects from the 2025 final call)
Lean and accuracy
Did leaning predict missing?
Did a pollster's lean in the final call predict how it missed?
Average poll missed toward R+7.7; correlation 0.37.
- Across: house effect in the final call, set before results were known
- Up and down: how its final polls actually missed
- On the dashed line: missed as its lean predicted. Far off: luckier or unluckier
Scorecard
Who beat the field
"vs. field" adjusts for difficulty, since some races were polled badly by everyone. Negative means the pollster missed by less than the others in the races it polled. Pollsters with too few final polls to rank are listed last, in gray.
| Pollster | Final polls | Races | Avg. miss | Bias | vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 3 | 2 | 9.8 | R+9.8 | +2.2 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 3 | 2 | 12.8 | R+12.8 | +5.3 |
| GQR | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | R+2.4 | −7.2 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 1 | 1 | 2.8 | R+2.8 | −6.8 |
| YouGov | 2 | 2 | 2.4 | R+2.4 | −5.6 |
| State Navigate | 2 | 1 | 2.2 | R+2.2 | −4.3 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 1 | 1 | 5.4 | R+5.4 | −4.0 |
| Washington Post/George Mason University | 1 | 1 | 3.4 | R+3.4 | −3.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 1 | 1 | 3.4 | R+3.4 | −3.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 1 | 1 | 6.4 | R+6.4 | −3.0 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 1 | 1 | 7.4 | R+7.4 | −1.9 |
| SoCal Strategies | 2 | 2 | 6.4 | R+6.4 | −1.4 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 1 | 1 | 5.4 | R+5.4 | −0.9 |
| Roanoke College | 1 | 1 | 5.4 | R+5.4 | −0.9 |
| Kaplan Strategies | 1 | 1 | 5.4 | R+5.4 | −0.9 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 2 | 1 | 8.4 | R+8.4 | −0.8 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 1 | 1 | 9.4 | R+9.4 | +0.2 |
| Emerson College | 2 | 2 | 8.3 | R+8.3 | +0.6 |
| A2 Insights | 2 | 2 | 8.4 | R+8.4 | +0.7 |
| Suffolk University | 2 | 2 | 8.6 | R+8.6 | +0.9 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2 | 2 | 9.3 | R+9.3 | +1.7 |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | 1 | 1 | 8.4 | R+8.4 | +2.2 |
| Christopher Newport University | 1 | 1 | 8.4 | R+8.4 | +2.2 |
| Research Co. | 2 | 2 | 9.9 | R+9.9 | +2.3 |
| KAConsulting | 1 | 1 | 11.4 | R+11.4 | +2.3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2 | 2 | 10.1 | R+10.1 | +2.5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 1 | 1 | 8.9 | R+8.9 | +2.8 |
| co/efficient | 2 | 2 | 11.9 | R+11.9 | +4.4 |
Races
Races scored in 2025
"Final consensus" is our average frozen on election day, so later refits can't change it. * = today's refit, since no final call was taken.
| Race | Result | Final consensus | Consensus miss | Polls | Avg. poll miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 New Jersey Governor · results | D+14.4 | D+4.8 | R+9.5 | 20 | 9.1 |
| 2025 Virginia Governor · results | D+15.4 | D+9.0 | R+6.4 | 23 | 6.4 |
Every scored poll
| Race | Pollster | Ended | Sample | Poll | Miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | Oct 14, 2025 | 869 LV | D+5.0 | R+9.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Fairleigh Dickinson University | Oct 15, 2025 | 814 LV | D+7.0 | R+7.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | InsiderAdvantage | Oct 15, 2025 | 800 LV | D+1.1 | R+13.3 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | Oct 15, 2025 | 800 LV | D+1.0 | R+13.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | KAConsulting | Oct 16, 2025 | 601 RV | D+3.0 | R+11.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Rutgers-Eagleton | Oct 17, 2025 | 795 LV | D+5.0 | R+9.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Concord Public Opinion Partners | Oct 18, 2025 | 605 LV | D+9.0 | R+5.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | GQR | Oct 20, 2025 | 1,000 LV | D+12.0 | R+2.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | A2 Insights | Oct 26, 2025 | 812 LV | D+4.9 | R+9.5 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | co/efficient | Oct 27, 2025 | 995 LV | D+1.0 | R+13.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Quantus Insights | Oct 27, 2025 | 1,380 LV | D+3.3 | R+11.1 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | YouGov | Oct 28, 2025 | 1,153 LV | D+10.0 | R+4.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Quinnipiac University | Oct 28, 2025 | 1,166 LV | D+8.0 | R+6.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Emerson College | Oct 28, 2025 | 1,000 LV | D+2.0 | R+12.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | Oct 28, 2025 | 956 LV | D+7.0 | R+7.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Suffolk University | Oct 29, 2025 | 500 LV | D+4.0 | R+10.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | SoCal Strategies | Oct 29, 2025 | 800 LV | D+7.0 | R+7.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | AtlasIntel | Oct 30, 2025 | 1,639 LV | D+0.9 | R+13.5 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | John Zogby Strategies | Nov 3, 2025 | 1,205 RV | D+11.6 | R+2.8 | release |
| 2025-GOV-NJ-G | Research Co. | Nov 3, 2025 | 450 LV | D+2.0 | R+12.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Virginia Commonwealth University | Oct 14, 2025 | 784 RV | D+7.0 | R+8.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | Oct 15, 2025 | 1,039 LV | D+2.2 | R+13.2 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Clarity Campaign Labs | Oct 17, 2025 | 958 LV | D+10.0 | R+5.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | co/efficient | Oct 17, 2025 | 937 LV | D+5.0 | R+10.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Kaplan Strategies | Oct 18, 2025 | 556 LV | D+10.0 | R+5.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | State Navigate | Oct 20, 2025 | 689 LV | D+13.0 | R+2.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Washington Post/George Mason University | Oct 20, 2025 | 927 LV | D+12.0 | R+3.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Quantus Insights | Oct 20, 2025 | 1,302 LV | D+5.0 | R+10.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Suffolk University | Oct 21, 2025 | 500 LV | D+8.6 | R+6.8 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Christopher Newport University | Oct 23, 2025 | 803 LV | D+7.0 | R+8.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | A2 Insights | Oct 26, 2025 | 776 LV | D+8.1 | R+7.3 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Roanoke College | Oct 27, 2025 | 1,041 LV | D+10.0 | R+5.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | YouGov | Oct 28, 2025 | 1,179 LV | D+15.0 | R+0.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | Oct 28, 2025 | 800 LV | D+4.1 | R+11.3 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | State Navigate | Oct 28, 2025 | 614 LV | D+13.3 | R+2.1 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | SoCal Strategies | Oct 29, 2025 | 800 LV | D+10.0 | R+5.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | AtlasIntel | Oct 30, 2025 | 1,325 LV | D+8.7 | R+6.7 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Echelon Insights | Oct 31, 2025 | 606 LV | D+12.0 | R+3.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Emerson College | Oct 31, 2025 | 880 LV | D+11.2 | R+4.2 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Trafalgar Group | Nov 2, 2025 | 1,057 LV | D+6.5 | R+8.9 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | InsiderAdvantage | Nov 3, 2025 | 800 LV | D+10.0 | R+5.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Research Co. | Nov 3, 2025 | 450 LV | D+8.0 | R+7.4 | release |
| 2025-GOV-VA-G | Quantus Insights | Nov 3, 2025 | 1,201 LV | D+8.7 | R+6.7 | release |