Updated Oct 22, 2026 · newest poll Oct 20, 2026
How different are the pollsters?
We measure how far each pollster sits from the rest of the field, and whether the gaps beat chance.
The field
Where 88 election pollsters sit Where 41 approval pollsters sit
Each dot is a pollster with 5 or more polls, placed at its average lean against everyone else polling the same races in the same weeks. Each dot is a pollster with 5 or more Trump approval polls, placed at how far its net approval sits from the field.
- Dots stack in half-pointone-point bins; the ringed dot is the pollster with the most polls
- Leans are relative, not proof of bias: the consensus can be wrong too
Polls analyzed
2,307
57 races · 234 pollsters
Spread · elections
±1.6 pts
Std. dev. of house effects, 88 pollsters with 5+ polls
Spread · approval
±5.2 pts
Net approval, 41 pollsters with 5+ polls
Disagreement · elections
0.86×
Scatter vs. sampling error alone (1× = none extra), last 2 weeks
House effects
The 24 most-published pollsters
Each dot is a pollster's average lean; the bar is its 95% interval. The number after the lean is its poll count.
All pollsters, including those with fewer than 5 polls.
Show every ranked pollster as a table
| Pollster | House effect | 95% interval | Polls | Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | R+3.6 | R+2.1 to R+5.1 | 23 | 5 |
| co/efficient | R+3.6 | R+2.3 to R+4.9 | 37 | 25 |
| Peak Insights | R+3.4 | R+0.3 to R+6.6 | 6 | 3 |
| RMG Research | R+3.0 | R+1.4 to R+4.5 | 20 | 4 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | R+2.9 | R+0.1 to R+5.6 | 6 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.7 | R+0.1 to R+5.4 | 5 | 4 |
| HarrisX | R+2.6 | R+0.5 to R+4.7 | 7 | 1 |
| National Public Affairs | R+2.5 | D+0.2 to R+5.3 | 7 | 7 |
| Morning Consult | R+2.2 | R+1.5 to R+2.8 | 42 | 3 |
| Ipsos | R+2.0 | R+0.7 to R+3.3 | 18 | 1 |
| Targoz Market Research | R+1.9 | D+0.5 to R+4.5 | 8 | 4 |
| GrayHouse | R+1.9 | D+0.4 to R+4.1 | 9 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | R+1.8 | R+0.3 to R+3.3 | 23 | 14 |
| Glengariff Group | R+1.7 | D+0.7 to R+4.1 | 11 | 2 |
| Quantus Insights | R+1.6 | R+0.6 to R+2.7 | 51 | 20 |
| SurveyUSA | R+1.1 | D+1.0 to R+3.1 | 18 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.1 | D+1.3 to R+3.5 | 8 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | R+0.9 | D+0.5 to R+2.4 | 25 | 16 |
| Kreate Strategies | R+0.9 | D+1.3 to R+3.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Echelon Insights | R+0.8 | D+0.6 to R+2.2 | 29 | 11 |
| Texas Southern University | R+0.8 | D+1.4 to R+3.0 | 6 | 2 |
| SoCal Strategies | R+0.8 | D+1.6 to R+3.3 | 9 | 6 |
| Cygnal | R+0.8 | D+0.5 to R+2.0 | 36 | 10 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | R+0.7 | D+1.0 to R+2.5 | 14 | 3 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | R+0.6 | D+1.9 to R+3.2 | 5 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | R+0.5 | D+1.1 to R+2.1 | 18 | 13 |
| A2 Insights | R+0.3 | D+2.3 to R+2.9 | 6 | 4 |
| EPIC-MRA | R+0.3 | D+2.6 to R+3.1 | 5 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+0.3 | D+1.4 to R+1.9 | 37 | 10 |
| University of North Florida | R+0.2 | D+2.3 to R+2.8 | 7 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena | R+0.2 | D+1.4 to R+1.7 | 31 | 19 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | R+0.1 | D+2.5 to R+2.8 | 5 | 5 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | R+0.1 | D+1.9 to R+2.0 | 9 | 1 |
| Wedgewood Polls | R+0.1 | D+2.2 to R+2.3 | 11 | 11 |
| Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | R+0.1 | D+2.1 to R+2.1 | 9 | 2 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | Even | D+2.1 to R+2.2 | 9 | 2 |
| Harper Polling | Even | D+2.9 to R+2.9 | 7 | 1 |
| Emerson College | D+0.1 | D+1.0 to R+1.0 | 67 | 27 |
| J.L. Partners | D+0.1 | D+2.7 to R+2.9 | 5 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | D+0.1 | D+1.9 to R+1.8 | 15 | 10 |
| The Winston Group | D+0.1 | D+2.4 to R+2.3 | 6 | 1 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | D+0.1 | D+2.3 to R+2.0 | 12 | 3 |
| Lake Research Partners | D+0.1 | D+2.9 to R+2.6 | 8 | 4 |
| YouGov | D+0.1 | D+0.8 to R+0.5 | 88 | 25 |
| Alaska Survey Research | D+0.2 | D+2.6 to R+2.4 | 15 | 2 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | D+0.2 | D+2.6 to R+2.2 | 8 | 5 |
| Big Data Poll | D+0.3 | D+1.6 to R+1.1 | 21 | 10 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | D+0.3 | D+1.7 to R+1.1 | 32 | 15 |
| ActiVote | D+0.3 | D+3.0 to R+2.3 | 11 | 11 |
| Focaldata | D+0.4 | D+2.3 to R+1.6 | 6 | 1 |
| CBS News/YouGov | D+0.4 | D+2.5 to R+1.7 | 6 | 6 |
| Impact Research | D+0.4 | D+2.4 to R+1.5 | 18 | 9 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | D+0.5 | D+2.8 to R+1.9 | 11 | 2 |
| John Zogby Strategies | D+0.5 | D+2.8 to R+1.9 | 7 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | D+0.5 | D+2.3 to R+1.3 | 26 | 19 |
| Z to A Research | D+0.5 | D+3.3 to R+2.3 | 6 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | D+0.6 | D+2.8 to R+1.6 | 12 | 6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | D+0.7 | D+2.5 to R+1.0 | 13 | 2 |
| CNN/SSRS | D+0.7 | D+2.5 to R+1.1 | 13 | 9 |
| Abacus Data | D+0.7 | D+3.9 to R+2.2 | 5 | 5 |
| Change Research | D+0.8 | D+2.4 to R+0.9 | 23 | 9 |
| Slingshot Strategies | D+0.8 | D+2.9 to R+1.2 | 9 | 2 |
| UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot | D+0.8 | D+3.2 to R+1.5 | 5 | 2 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | D+0.8 | D+2.5 to R+0.8 | 17 | 15 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | D+1.0 | D+3.1 to R+1.0 | 9 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | D+1.0 | D+3.5 to R+1.5 | 7 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | D+1.1 | D+3.3 to R+1.1 | 17 | 12 |
| Hart Research Associates | D+1.3 | D+3.8 to R+1.3 | 8 | 7 |
| Evitarus | D+1.4 | D+3.6 to R+0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | D+1.4 | D+4.0 to R+1.1 | 8 | 5 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | D+1.4 | D+4.4 to R+1.6 | 6 | 3 |
| Siena/ReconMR | D+1.5 | D+3.9 to R+1.0 | 8 | 2 |
| Tulchin Research | D+1.5 | D+4.0 to R+1.0 | 6 | 4 |
| GQR | D+1.6 | D+4.5 to R+1.2 | 5 | 5 |
| Washington Post/George Mason University | D+1.7 | D+4.1 to R+0.7 | 6 | 5 |
| Verasight | D+1.9 | D+0.6 to D+3.1 | 21 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | D+1.9 | Even to D+3.7 | 15 | 5 |
| GBAO | D+1.9 | D+0.1 to D+3.7 | 15 | 10 |
| GS Strategy Group/ New River Strategies | D+1.9 | D+4.4 to R+0.4 | 6 | 6 |
| EMC Research | D+2.0 | D+4.8 to R+0.8 | 5 | 3 |
| Marist Poll | D+2.5 | D+1.0 to D+3.9 | 24 | 12 |
| The Bullfinch Group | D+2.7 | D+5.5 to R+0.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Tavern Research | D+2.7 | Even to D+5.4 | 8 | 5 |
| PennLive | D+2.7 | D+5.8 to R+0.3 | 5 | 1 |
| PPIC | D+2.8 | D+0.3 to D+5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Siena Research Institute | D+2.8 | D+0.1 to D+5.6 | 9 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | D+3.4 | D+0.9 to D+5.9 | 7 | 3 |
| UC Berkeley IGS | D+5.6 | D+3.5 to D+7.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Pollster | House effect | 95% interval | Polls | Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | −12.6 net approval | −14.5 to −10.7 net approval | 18 | 1 |
| Pew Research Center | −10.1 net approval | −11.8 to −8.4 net approval | 8 | 1 |
| AP-NORC | −9.2 net approval | −11.3 to −7.1 net approval | 18 | 1 |
| CNN/SSRS | −7.6 net approval | −9.6 to −5.6 net approval | 12 | 1 |
| Gallup | −6.8 net approval | −9.2 to −4.3 net approval | 12 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | −5.3 net approval | −7.1 to −3.6 net approval | 19 | 1 |
| Ipsos | −4.7 net approval | −5.7 to −3.7 net approval | 44 | 1 |
| The Winston Group | −4.4 net approval | −7.4 to −1.2 net approval | 6 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | −4.3 net approval | −6.0 to −2.7 net approval | 8 | 1 |
| Verasight | −3.9 net approval | −5.3 to −2.5 net approval | 21 | 1 |
| Marist Poll | −3.9 net approval | −5.9 to −1.8 net approval | 10 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | −2.7 net approval | −4.2 to −1.2 net approval | 24 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena | −2.6 net approval | −5.5 to +0.2 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | −2.1 net approval | −4.9 to +0.7 net approval | 10 | 1 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | −2.0 net approval | −5.2 to +1.3 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | −1.9 net approval | −4.2 to +0.2 net approval | 9 | 1 |
| Leger | −1.7 net approval | −4.9 to +1.5 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | −1.7 net approval | −3.8 to +0.3 net approval | 14 | 1 |
| GBAO | −1.5 net approval | −4.3 to +1.3 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| YouGov | −1.4 net approval | −2.1 to −0.7 net approval | 88 | 1 |
| Echelon Insights | −0.7 net approval | −2.6 to +1.2 net approval | 22 | 1 |
| The Bullfinch Group | −0.4 net approval | −2.9 to +2.1 net approval | 11 | 1 |
| Tavern Research | −0.3 net approval | −3.3 to +2.6 net approval | 6 | 1 |
| Focaldata | +0.7 net approval | −2.0 to +3.2 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | +1.1 net approval | −1.3 to +3.5 net approval | 10 | 1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | +1.7 net approval | −0.6 to +4.0 net approval | 11 | 1 |
| CBS News/YouGov | +1.9 net approval | −0.7 to +4.5 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| ActiVote | +1.9 net approval | −0.4 to +4.2 net approval | 16 | 1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | +2.4 net approval | −0.1 to +4.9 net approval | 13 | 1 |
| Emerson College | +3.3 net approval | +1.6 to +5.0 net approval | 21 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | +3.4 net approval | +1.9 to +4.9 net approval | 22 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | +3.5 net approval | +0.7 to +6.5 net approval | 8 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | +3.8 net approval | +3.1 to +4.5 net approval | 72 | 1 |
| Quantus Insights | +3.9 net approval | +2.5 to +5.2 net approval | 32 | 1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | +4.1 net approval | +0.3 to +7.6 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| J.L. Partners | +5.3 net approval | +3.4 to +7.1 net approval | 22 | 1 |
| Big Data Poll | +5.6 net approval | +3.9 to +7.2 net approval | 14 | 1 |
| HarrisX | +6.3 net approval | +4.8 to +7.8 net approval | 17 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | +6.8 net approval | +3.4 to +10.2 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| RMG Research | +8.0 net approval | +6.9 to +9.0 net approval | 41 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | +12.8 net approval | +9.8 to +15.7 net approval | 10 | 1 |
Disagreement over time: elections
How far polls scatter around the consensus, relative to sampling error alone. Rolling 2-week windows.
Disagreement over time: approval
How far polls scatter around the consensus, relative to sampling error alone. Rolling 2-week windows.
Latest
Newest election polls
The arrow shows each pollster's overall lean, a hint of which way a new poll tilts. It points down at no lean and turns toward the party it leans to.