How different are the pollsters?
PurpleData collects public polls and measures how far each pollster sits from the rest of the field. It checks whether those gaps are bigger than chance would produce, and whether polls cluster more tightly than sampling error allows.
Polls analyzed
2,274
57 races · 232 pollsters
Spread of election house effects
±1.7 pts
std. dev. across 86 pollsters with 5+ polls
Election poll disagreement
1.36×
what sampling error predicts; 1× means no excess. Latest 2 weeks.
Spread of approval house effects
±5.2 pts
net approval, 40 pollsters with 5+ polls
House effects: who leans which way
A pollster's average distance from the consensus of everyone else's polls, after matching race and timing. Lines show 95% intervals, and pollsters with fewer than 5 polls are not shown. These are relative leans, not proof of bias: the consensus itself can be wrong.
Show as table
| Pollster | House effect | 95% interval | Polls | Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | R+3.7 | -5.2 to -2.2 | 23 | 5 |
| co/efficient | R+3.6 | -4.9 to -2.3 | 35 | 23 |
| Peak Insights | R+3.4 | -6.7 to -0.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | R+3.0 | -5.8 to -0.2 | 6 | 2 |
| RMG Research | R+3.0 | -4.5 to -1.4 | 20 | 4 |
| HarrisX | R+2.7 | -4.8 to -0.5 | 7 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.5 | -5.3 to 0.2 | 5 | 4 |
| National Public Affairs | R+2.5 | -5.0 to 0.2 | 7 | 7 |
| Morning Consult | R+2.1 | -2.8 to -1.5 | 42 | 3 |
| Ipsos | R+2.0 | -3.2 to -0.7 | 18 | 1 |
| Targoz Market Research | R+1.9 | -4.5 to 0.7 | 8 | 4 |
| GrayHouse | R+1.8 | -4.2 to 0.4 | 9 | 5 |
| Glengariff Group | R+1.7 | -4.2 to 0.6 | 11 | 2 |
| Quantus Insights | R+1.6 | -2.7 to -0.5 | 51 | 20 |
| Trafalgar Group | R+1.5 | -3.1 to 0.0 | 22 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | R+1.1 | -3.1 to 1.1 | 18 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.1 | -3.5 to 1.3 | 8 | 7 |
| University of North Florida | R+1.0 | -4.0 to 1.9 | 5 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | R+0.9 | -2.4 to 0.6 | 25 | 16 |
| Kreate Strategies | R+0.9 | -3.2 to 1.4 | 7 | 2 |
| Texas Southern University | R+0.9 | -3.1 to 1.3 | 6 | 2 |
| Echelon Insights | R+0.8 | -2.2 to 0.6 | 29 | 11 |
| Cygnal | R+0.8 | -2.0 to 0.5 | 36 | 10 |
| SoCal Strategies | R+0.7 | -3.1 to 1.8 | 9 | 6 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | R+0.7 | -3.4 to 2.0 | 5 | 5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | R+0.6 | -2.3 to 1.1 | 14 | 3 |
| A2 Insights | R+0.3 | -3.0 to 2.3 | 6 | 4 |
| EPIC-MRA | R+0.3 | -3.1 to 2.7 | 5 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+0.2 | -1.8 to 1.4 | 37 | 10 |
| The New York Times/Siena | R+0.2 | -1.8 to 1.4 | 31 | 19 |
| Rasmussen Reports | R+0.2 | -1.9 to 1.5 | 18 | 13 |
| Alaska Survey Research | R+0.2 | -3.1 to 2.6 | 15 | 2 |
| Emerson College | R+0.1 | -1.1 to 0.9 | 66 | 27 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | R+0.1 | -2.2 to 2.0 | 9 | 1 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | R+0.1 | -2.8 to 2.5 | 5 | 5 |
| Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | R+0.1 | -2.2 to 2.1 | 9 | 2 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Even | -2.2 to 2.2 | 11 | 11 |
| Lake Research Partners | Even | -2.7 to 2.8 | 8 | 4 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | Even | -2.3 to 2.3 | 9 | 2 |
| J.L. Partners | D+0.1 | -2.7 to 2.9 | 5 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | D+0.1 | -1.7 to 2.1 | 15 | 10 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | D+0.1 | -2.3 to 2.6 | 8 | 5 |
| Harper Polling | D+0.2 | -2.7 to 3.1 | 7 | 1 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | D+0.2 | -2.0 to 2.5 | 12 | 3 |
| The Winston Group | D+0.2 | -2.1 to 2.6 | 6 | 1 |
| YouGov | D+0.3 | -0.5 to 1.0 | 83 | 25 |
| Big Data Poll | D+0.3 | -1.0 to 1.7 | 21 | 10 |
| Focaldata | D+0.4 | -1.6 to 2.3 | 6 | 1 |
| CBS News/YouGov | D+0.4 | -1.8 to 2.6 | 6 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | D+0.4 | -1.3 to 2.2 | 26 | 19 |
| ActiVote | D+0.4 | -2.1 to 3.0 | 11 | 11 |
| Impact Research | D+0.4 | -1.6 to 2.4 | 18 | 9 |
| John Zogby Strategies | D+0.5 | -1.9 to 2.8 | 7 | 3 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | D+0.5 | -1.9 to 2.8 | 11 | 2 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | D+0.6 | -0.9 to 2.1 | 28 | 15 |
| Z to A Research | D+0.6 | -2.2 to 3.5 | 6 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | D+0.7 | -1.4 to 2.9 | 12 | 6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | D+0.8 | -1.0 to 2.6 | 13 | 2 |
| Slingshot Strategies | D+0.8 | -1.3 to 2.9 | 9 | 2 |
| Change Research | D+0.8 | -0.9 to 2.4 | 23 | 9 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | D+0.8 | -0.9 to 2.4 | 17 | 15 |
| Abacus Data | D+0.8 | -2.4 to 4.1 | 5 | 5 |
| CNN/SSRS | D+0.8 | -1.0 to 2.7 | 13 | 9 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | D+1.0 | -1.0 to 3.1 | 9 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | D+1.1 | -1.6 to 3.7 | 7 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | D+1.1 | -1.0 to 3.4 | 17 | 12 |
| Hart Research Associates | D+1.2 | -1.3 to 3.9 | 8 | 7 |
| Evitarus | D+1.3 | -0.9 to 3.5 | 5 | 1 |
| Siena/ReconMR | D+1.4 | -1.1 to 4.0 | 8 | 2 |
| Tulchin Research | D+1.5 | -1.1 to 4.0 | 6 | 4 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | D+1.5 | -1.5 to 4.6 | 6 | 3 |
| GQR | D+1.6 | -1.4 to 4.7 | 5 | 5 |
| Washington Post/George Mason University | D+1.8 | -0.7 to 4.3 | 6 | 5 |
| Verasight | D+1.8 | 0.5 to 3.2 | 21 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | D+1.9 | -0.1 to 3.9 | 14 | 5 |
| GBAO | D+1.9 | 0.1 to 3.7 | 15 | 10 |
| Data for Progress | D+1.9 | -0.8 to 4.8 | 8 | 5 |
| EMC Research | D+2.0 | -0.7 to 4.8 | 5 | 3 |
| Marist Poll | D+2.4 | 0.9 to 3.9 | 23 | 12 |
| Tavern Research | D+2.7 | 0.1 to 5.3 | 8 | 5 |
| The Bullfinch Group | D+2.8 | 0.1 to 5.5 | 6 | 3 |
| Siena Research Institute | D+2.8 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 9 | 1 |
| PPIC | D+2.9 | 0.4 to 5.4 | 6 | 1 |
| PennLive | D+2.9 | -0.1 to 6.1 | 5 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | D+3.5 | 0.9 to 6.0 | 7 | 3 |
| UC Berkeley IGS | D+5.8 | 3.7 to 8.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Pollster | House effect | 95% interval | Polls | Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | −12.7 net approval | -14.5 to -10.7 | 18 | 1 |
| Pew Research Center | −10.1 net approval | -11.7 to -8.4 | 8 | 1 |
| AP-NORC | −9.2 net approval | -11.2 to -7.2 | 18 | 1 |
| CNN/SSRS | −7.6 net approval | -9.6 to -5.6 | 12 | 1 |
| Gallup | −6.8 net approval | -9.2 to -4.4 | 12 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | −5.3 net approval | -7.1 to -3.6 | 19 | 1 |
| Ipsos | −4.7 net approval | -5.8 to -3.7 | 44 | 1 |
| The Winston Group | −4.3 net approval | -7.5 to -1.2 | 6 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | −4.2 net approval | -5.9 to -2.7 | 8 | 1 |
| Verasight | −4.1 net approval | -5.5 to -2.7 | 20 | 1 |
| Marist Poll | −3.9 net approval | -6.0 to -1.9 | 10 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | −2.7 net approval | -4.3 to -1.2 | 24 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | −2.1 net approval | -4.7 to 0.5 | 10 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | −2.0 net approval | -4.1 to 0.0 | 9 | 1 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | −1.9 net approval | -5.2 to 1.5 | 5 | 1 |
| Leger | −1.8 net approval | -5.0 to 1.5 | 5 | 1 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | −1.6 net approval | -3.6 to 0.4 | 14 | 1 |
| GBAO | −1.5 net approval | -4.2 to 1.3 | 5 | 1 |
| YouGov | −1.4 net approval | -2.2 to -0.7 | 83 | 1 |
| Echelon Insights | −0.7 net approval | -2.6 to 1.1 | 22 | 1 |
| The Bullfinch Group | −0.4 net approval | -3.0 to 2.1 | 11 | 1 |
| Tavern Research | −0.3 net approval | -3.3 to 2.7 | 6 | 1 |
| Focaldata | +0.8 net approval | -2.0 to 3.3 | 5 | 1 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | +1.1 net approval | -1.3 to 3.5 | 10 | 1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | +1.7 net approval | -0.7 to 4.1 | 11 | 1 |
| ActiVote | +1.8 net approval | -0.5 to 4.2 | 16 | 1 |
| CBS News/YouGov | +1.8 net approval | -0.8 to 4.4 | 5 | 1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | +2.5 net approval | -0.1 to 4.9 | 13 | 1 |
| Emerson College | +3.3 net approval | 1.6 to 5.0 | 21 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | +3.4 net approval | 1.8 to 5.0 | 22 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | +3.6 net approval | 0.7 to 6.6 | 8 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | +3.7 net approval | 3.0 to 4.4 | 72 | 1 |
| Quantus Insights | +3.9 net approval | 2.5 to 5.3 | 32 | 1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | +4.0 net approval | 0.2 to 7.5 | 5 | 1 |
| J.L. Partners | +5.3 net approval | 3.4 to 7.2 | 22 | 1 |
| Big Data Poll | +5.5 net approval | 3.9 to 7.2 | 14 | 1 |
| HarrisX | +6.3 net approval | 4.9 to 7.8 | 17 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | +6.8 net approval | 3.3 to 10.1 | 5 | 1 |
| RMG Research | +8.0 net approval | 6.9 to 8.9 | 41 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | +12.8 net approval | 9.8 to 15.8 | 10 | 1 |
Disagreement over time: elections
How widely polls scatter around the consensus, compared with the scatter sample sizes alone would produce. Rolling 2-week windows.
Disagreement over time: approval
How widely polls scatter around the consensus, compared with the scatter sample sizes alone would produce. Rolling 2-week windows.
Latest election polls
Updated Oct 21, 2026. Newest poll: Oct 20, 2026.