Updated Oct 22, 2026 · newest poll Oct 21, 2026
How different are the pollsters?
We measure how far each pollster sits from the rest of the field, and whether the gaps beat chance.
The field
Where 89 election pollsters sit Where 41 approval pollsters sit
Each dot is a pollster with 5 or more polls, placed at its average lean against everyone else polling the same races in the same weeks. Each dot is a pollster with 5 or more Trump approval polls, placed at how far its net approval sits from the field.
- Each dot sits at its exact lean, stacking up where they would overlap; hover a dot to see the pollster
- Leans are relative, not proof of bias: the consensus can be wrong too
Polls analyzed
2,328
58 races · 238 pollsters
Spread · elections
±1.7 pts
Std. dev. of house effects, 89 pollsters with 5+ polls
Spread · approval
±5.6 pts
Net approval, 41 pollsters with 5+ polls
Disagreement · elections
1.00×
Scatter vs. sampling error alone (1× = none extra), last 2 weeks
House effects
The 24 most-published pollsters
Each dot is a pollster's average lean; the bar is its 95% interval. The number after the lean is its poll count.
All pollsters, including those with fewer than 5 polls.
Show every ranked pollster as a table
| Pollster | House effect← DR → | 95% interval | Polls | Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 3.6 | R+2.1 to R+5.3 | 23 | 5 |
| co/efficient | 3.6 | R+2.4 to R+4.9 | 37 | 25 |
| Peak Insights | 3.5 | R+0.3 to R+6.7 | 6 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 3.2 | R+0.6 to R+6.0 | 6 | 5 |
| RMG Research | 3.0 | R+1.4 to R+4.5 | 20 | 4 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2.9 | R+0.1 to R+5.7 | 6 | 2 |
| HarrisX | 2.6 | R+0.6 to R+4.6 | 7 | 1 |
| National Public Affairs | 2.2 | D+0.3 to R+4.8 | 8 | 8 |
| Morning Consult | 2.2 | R+1.5 to R+2.8 | 42 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2.0 | R+0.7 to R+3.3 | 18 | 1 |
| GrayHouse | 1.9 | D+0.3 to R+4.2 | 9 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 1.9 | R+0.5 to R+3.3 | 23 | 14 |
| Targoz Market Research | 1.9 | D+0.6 to R+4.4 | 8 | 4 |
| Quantus Insights | 1.8 | R+0.7 to R+2.8 | 52 | 21 |
| Glengariff Group | 1.7 | D+0.7 to R+4.2 | 11 | 2 |
| SoCal Strategies | 1.1 | D+1.3 to R+3.6 | 8 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 1.1 | D+0.9 to R+3.2 | 18 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1.1 | D+1.3 to R+3.5 | 8 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1.0 | D+0.4 to R+2.5 | 25 | 16 |
| Kreate Strategies | 0.9 | D+1.4 to R+3.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Echelon Insights | 0.8 | D+0.5 to R+2.2 | 29 | 11 |
| Cygnal | 0.8 | D+0.4 to R+2.1 | 36 | 10 |
| Texas Southern University | 0.8 | D+1.5 to R+3.1 | 6 | 2 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 0.7 | D+1.1 to R+2.4 | 14 | 3 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 0.7 | D+2.0 to R+3.4 | 5 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 0.6 | D+1.0 to R+2.1 | 18 | 13 |
| A2 Insights | 0.3 | D+2.2 to R+2.8 | 6 | 4 |
| EPIC-MRA | 0.3 | D+2.6 to R+3.1 | 5 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 0.3 | D+1.4 to R+1.9 | 37 | 10 |
| University of North Florida | 0.2 | D+2.3 to R+2.8 | 7 | 2 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | 0.2 | D+2.3 to R+2.7 | 5 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 0.2 | D+1.4 to R+1.7 | 31 | 19 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 0.1 | D+2.0 to R+2.1 | 9 | 1 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 0.1 | D+2.2 to R+2.3 | 11 | 11 |
| Harper Polling | 0.1 | D+2.8 to R+2.8 | 7 | 1 |
| Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | 0.1 | D+2.0 to R+2.1 | 9 | 2 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 0.1 | D+2.1 to R+2.2 | 9 | 2 |
| J.L. Partners | 0.0 | D+2.8 to R+2.8 | 5 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 0.0 | D+1.0 to R+0.9 | 69 | 27 |
| TIPP Insights | 0.0 | D+1.9 to R+1.9 | 15 | 10 |
| The Winston Group | 0.0 | D+2.4 to R+2.4 | 6 | 1 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 0.1 | D+2.3 to R+2.0 | 12 | 3 |
| YouGov | 0.1 | D+0.8 to R+0.5 | 88 | 25 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 0.2 | D+2.5 to R+2.2 | 15 | 2 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 0.2 | D+2.6 to R+2.2 | 8 | 5 |
| ActiVote | 0.2 | D+2.6 to R+2.2 | 14 | 12 |
| Big Data Poll | 0.2 | D+1.6 to R+1.2 | 21 | 10 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 0.3 | D+1.7 to R+1.1 | 32 | 15 |
| Focaldata | 0.4 | D+2.2 to R+1.4 | 6 | 1 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 0.4 | D+2.5 to R+1.7 | 6 | 6 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 0.4 | D+2.9 to R+2.0 | 11 | 2 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 0.4 | D+2.8 to R+1.9 | 7 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 0.5 | D+2.3 to R+1.2 | 31 | 20 |
| Z to A Research | 0.5 | D+3.5 to R+2.3 | 6 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 0.6 | D+2.8 to R+1.5 | 12 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 0.6 | D+2.5 to R+1.3 | 19 | 10 |
| Lake Research Partners | 0.6 | D+3.5 to R+2.2 | 9 | 5 |
| Abacus Data | 0.7 | D+3.9 to R+2.5 | 5 | 5 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 0.7 | D+2.5 to R+1.1 | 13 | 2 |
| CNN/SSRS | 0.8 | D+2.6 to R+1.0 | 13 | 9 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 0.8 | D+2.8 to R+1.3 | 9 | 2 |
| Change Research | 0.8 | D+2.4 to R+0.8 | 23 | 9 |
| UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot | 0.8 | D+3.2 to R+1.5 | 5 | 2 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 0.8 | D+2.4 to R+0.8 | 17 | 15 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 1.0 | D+3.6 to R+1.7 | 7 | 2 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1.0 | D+3.1 to R+1.1 | 9 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 1.1 | D+3.3 to R+1.0 | 17 | 12 |
| Hart Research Associates | 1.3 | D+3.9 to R+1.2 | 8 | 7 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 1.4 | D+4.3 to R+1.5 | 6 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 1.4 | D+3.8 to R+1.1 | 8 | 5 |
| Evitarus | 1.4 | D+3.6 to R+0.7 | 5 | 1 |
| Siena/ReconMR | 1.4 | D+3.8 to R+0.9 | 8 | 2 |
| Tulchin Research | 1.5 | D+4.0 to R+1.1 | 6 | 4 |
| GQR | 1.7 | D+4.5 to R+1.2 | 5 | 5 |
| Washington Post/George Mason University | 1.7 | D+4.2 to R+0.8 | 6 | 5 |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group | 1.8 | D+4.2 to R+0.7 | 6 | 6 |
| Verasight | 1.9 | D+0.6 to D+3.1 | 21 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 1.9 | Even to D+3.8 | 15 | 5 |
| GBAO | 1.9 | D+0.1 to D+3.7 | 15 | 10 |
| EMC Research | 2.0 | D+4.7 to R+0.6 | 5 | 3 |
| Marist Poll | 2.4 | D+1.0 to D+3.9 | 24 | 12 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 2.7 | D+0.1 to D+5.4 | 6 | 3 |
| PennLive | 2.7 | D+5.9 to R+0.3 | 5 | 1 |
| Tavern Research | 2.7 | D+0.2 to D+5.2 | 8 | 5 |
| Siena Research Institute | 2.8 | Even to D+5.6 | 9 | 1 |
| PPIC | 2.8 | D+0.3 to D+5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 3.4 | D+0.9 to D+5.9 | 7 | 3 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 3.5 | D+0.5 to D+6.7 | 5 | 5 |
| UC Berkeley IGS | 5.6 | D+3.5 to D+7.7 | 5 | 1 |
| Pollster | House effect← lowerhigher → | 95% interval | Polls | Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | ◂ 12.4 | −14.1 to −10.7 net approval | 18 | 1 |
| Pew Research Center | ◂ 11.3 | −12.6 to −9.9 net approval | 8 | 1 |
| AP-NORC | ◂ 10.2 | −11.7 to −8.6 net approval | 18 | 1 |
| Gallup | 8.0 | −10.1 to −5.9 net approval | 12 | 1 |
| CNN/SSRS | 7.8 | −9.8 to −5.9 net approval | 12 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 6.0 | −6.9 to −5.1 net approval | 8 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 5.7 | −6.6 to −4.9 net approval | 44 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 5.0 | −6.6 to −3.4 net approval | 19 | 1 |
| Verasight | 4.3 | −5.7 to −3.0 net approval | 21 | 1 |
| The Winston Group | 4.3 | −7.2 to −1.4 net approval | 6 | 1 |
| Marist Poll | 3.7 | −5.8 to −1.6 net approval | 10 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 3.2 | −5.0 to −1.4 net approval | 9 | 1 |
| Leger | 2.7 | −5.8 to +0.5 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2.5 | −4.0 to −1.0 net approval | 24 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 2.4 | −5.0 to +0.1 net approval | 10 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 2.4 | −4.9 to +0.2 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | 1.8 | −5.0 to +1.5 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| YouGov | 1.5 | −2.2 to −0.8 net approval | 88 | 1 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 1.4 | −3.5 to +0.6 net approval | 14 | 1 |
| GBAO | 1.3 | −3.9 to +1.3 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 0.3 | −2.5 to +1.9 net approval | 11 | 1 |
| Focaldata | 0.8 | −1.7 to +3.2 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| ActiVote | 0.8 | −1.5 to +3.1 net approval | 16 | 1 |
| Echelon Insights | 0.8 | −0.7 to +2.4 net approval | 22 | 1 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 0.9 | −1.4 to +3.2 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 1.1 | −1.2 to +3.3 net approval | 10 | 1 |
| Tavern Research | 1.3 | −1.2 to +3.8 net approval | 6 | 1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2.2 | −0.1 to +4.4 net approval | 11 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2.5 | +1.2 to +3.8 net approval | 22 | 1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3.7 | +1.6 to +5.8 net approval | 13 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 3.7 | +3.2 to +4.2 net approval | 72 | 1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 3.8 | +1.6 to +6.0 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 3.9 | +2.3 to +5.5 net approval | 21 | 1 |
| Quantus Insights | 4.5 | +3.2 to +5.8 net approval | 32 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 5.4 | +3.0 to +7.8 net approval | 8 | 1 |
| J.L. Partners | 5.8 | +4.3 to +7.4 net approval | 22 | 1 |
| Big Data Poll | 5.9 | +4.6 to +7.2 net approval | 14 | 1 |
| HarrisX | 7.2 | +5.9 to +8.6 net approval | 17 | 1 |
| RMG Research | 7.8 | +7.1 to +8.6 net approval | 41 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 8.2 | +5.1 to +11.4 net approval | 5 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 14.2 ▸ | +11.7 to +16.7 net approval | 10 | 1 |
Disagreement over time: elections
How far polls scatter around the consensus, relative to sampling error alone. Rolling 2-week windows.
Disagreement over time: approval
How far polls scatter around the consensus, relative to sampling error alone. Rolling 2-week windows.
Latest
Newest election polls
The arrow shows each pollster's overall lean, a hint of which way a new poll tilts. It points down at no lean and turns toward the party it leans to.